July 26, 2012

Game of Thrones in the South China Sea: Gunboats and Diplomacy

China announced this week it would station troops on Yongxing Island, a one-square-mile islet in the Paracel Islands (see map). It’s a simple show of muscle, say analysts. “Putting garrisons on Woody Island [as Yongxing Island is known outside China] or elsewhere in the Paracels would effectively maroon these guys, so the only advantage would be just showing the flag—to say, ‘We are serious,’” Retired U.S. Rear Admiral Mike McDevitt, former director of East Asia policy at the Defense Department and now a senior fellow at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Time.

The move to Yongxing Island comes as disputes over territory in the South China Sea have been heating up. During ASEAN meetings earlier this month, Cambodia, a strong Chinese ally, stonewalled attempts to raise the issue in the regional forum. (China prefers to negotiate territorial disputes with its neighbors bilaterally as opposed to multilaterally.)

Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Advisor Tom Donilon just concluded what the White House is calling a “low-key” but productive visit to China. NYT correspondent Jane Perlez writes, ”China’s top leaders value their relationship with the White House most of all.” Shi Yinhong, a foreign policy adviser to China’s State Council, said that members of China’s top brass ”trust the White House more than the State Department or the Pentagon.”

If, as the White House says, Donilon’s visit was productive, perhaps we’ll see China softening its approach on South China Sea disputes in the future. At the moment, that’s not happening, as hawkish Chinese officials continue to reject neighbors’ claims to islands and territory, and Beijing is doing so with more than just rhetoric: Three Chinese maritime patrol ships entered Japanese waters near the disputed Senkaku Islands earlier this month, followed the very next day by another patrol boat, prompting Tokyo to summon the Chinese ambassador for an explanation. The islands, China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told his Japanese counterpart, are “inherently” Chinese.

Posted in China, Japan, Politics, Quick Takes
Send Us Feedback Send Post Ideas
Load Comments
  • Andrew Allison

    ”China’s top leaders value their relationship with the White House most of all.” Shi Yinhong, a foreign policy adviser to China’s State Council, said that members of China’s top brass ”trust the White House more than the State Department or the Pentagon.”

    An inadvertently revealing comment!!

  • Anthony

    “A wealthy China would not be a status quo power but an aggressive state determined to achieve regional hegemony. This is not because a rich China would have wicked motives, but because the best way for any state to maximize its prospects for survival is to be the hegemon in its region of the world” (John J. Mearsheimer). Are there kernals of truth in Prof. Mearsheimer’s above assertions vis-a-vis South China Seas, Paracel Islands, Senkaku Islands, etcetera?

  • Jacksonian Libertarian

    Tom Donilon is the one being accused of all the politically motivated security leaks, so the reason why the Chinese most likely trust the White House more is this guy can be bought with political favors. I don’t expect the Chinese to back off in the South China Sea however; they will only give lip service to the Obama Administration, while all their actions continue to be belligerent.

  • http://twitter.com/BKraxberger Brennan Kraxberger

    With or without the UN Law of the Sea, this sovereignty dispute comes down to realpolitik. That said, the US Senate would do well to ratify UNCLOS.

  • Kris

    The islands, China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told his Japanese counterpart, are “inherently” Chinese.

    That’s funny, they don’t look Chinese.

  • http://www.no-boxes-allowed.blogspot.com Jeff Cox

    The Law of the Sea Treaty is dead in the Senate and deserves to stay that way. It would be an insidious infringement on US sovereignty that is against US interests and inconsistent with our representative government.