Taiwan’s president Ma Ying-Jeou has been re-elected for a second four year term, though with a much smaller margin of victory than he had the first time. It’s a victory for his Nationalist Party, and suggests that relations with the mainland will be relatively smooth for another four years.
Ma is famous for a “three no” policy: no Taiwanese declaration of independence from the mainland, no reunion with the mainland, and no use of force. This is a formula that works in Beijing and in Washington, so diplomats in both cities will be breathing sighs of relief. US China relations are at a delicate stage; keeping the Taiwan issue on the back burner for another four years will make life easier for all concerned.
“And as good realists, we – the Chinese – want to dominate Asia….” Where does Taiwan fit in “the uncertainty of intentions” WRM and is East Asia becoming most critical part of world vis-a-vis U.S. foreign policy?
I continue to believe that the strength of Han nationalism is such that Taiwan will rejoin the mainland under a Hong Kong type formula, at some point in the not so very distant future. It may not be until there is a generation of Taiwanese that knows not Mao, but it will happen.
It is possible that a “civil war” could break out in China, and one manifestation of it might be a mainland vs Taiwan war. But, if the mainland leadership can keep the bicycle upright, a deal awaits them.