May 17, 2013

What Did Israel’s Bombing of Syria Mean?

Antipathy between Sunni and Shi’a radicals in and around the Syrian cauldron is growing rapidly, lately manifested in the battle of the shrines—wherein Sunnis destroy Shi’a holy sites (most recently one not too far from Damascus) and proudly disinter centuries-dead bodies (or the dust thought to have once been bodies), and the Iranian regime threatens holy retaliation, which goads the Sunnis toward the next shrine, and so on. The second Battle of Karbala is drawing ever closer, as I have said. This, exactly, is the context within which the Israeli strikes of May 4-5 must be seen.

Those air strikes on newly delivered munitions meant for Hizballah were nothing new—indeed, they were the third set of sorties this year. But these strikes were a little more telegenic, and larger-living politically, than earlier ones because the context is changed. What has been going on?

Senior Israeli officials do not relish ordering such attacks. They call attention to Israel when what is going on in Syria (and elsewhere in the region anywhere east of Ramallah and south of Gaza City) has pretty much nothing to do with Israel. That attention whets the addled diplomatic imaginations of people like John Kerry and other “linkers”, who still think, despite all the evidence, that Israel and Jews and the whole Jewcentric shebang of related influences are somehow central to every problem in and beyond the region. Of course they’re not; not that they’re completely irrelevant either (this isn’t simple).

Such attacks also raise the likelihood of a more intense shadow war of revenge, probably against Israeli and Jewish targets in Europe, Latin America and even places like Thailand and Goa. It’s simply not possible to defend against most such attacks. So this is a potential price that has to be reckoned in the decision mix, and it is not a small price. The prospect of an invigorated shadow war, in turn, could have a positive second-order impact, if it finally persuades the Europeans to list Hizballah as the terrorist organization it is. But one never knows with the Europeans, whose capacity for supine behavior seems never to hit bottom.

The strikes also ease Hizballah’s political problems inside Lebanon by making it look like what Hizballah is doing in support of the Assad regime is really part and parcel of the effort to destroy Israel. Hizballah has lots of trouble inside Lebanon right now, and that’s good up to, but not beyond, the point where those and others’ trouble combine to produce a new Lebanese civil war (even if that’s likely anyway).

So why mount the strikes if the downsides are so steep? You would have to ask Israeli Defense Minister Bogie Ya’alon directly to get the real skivvy (assuming he’d tell you the truth), but some elements of explanation are fairly straightforward.

Hizballah already has some 60,000 rockets capable of hitting Israel. It has around 5,000 well-trained day-job fighters and at least 15,000 reserve troops. Hizballah’s raison d’etre is the destruction of Israel, so it is not far-fetched for Israeli decision-makers to assume that, sooner or later, there’s going to be another fight with these guys. With Sarin and VX likely in the mix with all those missiles, what the Israelis are doing is essentially three-fold: (1) diminishing at the margin Hizballah’s capacity to kill Israeli civilians; (2) thus making a war, if it comes, shorter and hence less troublesome diplomatically; and (3) signaling to all concerned (and the signal travels all the way to Tehran) that Israel will not hesitate to defend itself at times and places, and with means, of its own choosing.

Numbers 1 and 2 are what sent Prime Minister Netanyahu to Sochi on May 14 to talk to Putin, because an A-300 delivery to Syria would make Israel’s task much harder and more dangerous in future for all concerned. (Oh, to have been a proverbial fly on the wall at that meeting.)

The signal Israel has sent to Hizballah has a special twist, not to be overlooked. Israel has essentially told the Hizballah directorate and its Syrian associates that its intelligence on what is coming into Syria, whether from Iran or indirectly from Russia, to the port of Tartus and then by land to and across the Beka’a and thence into Syria, is pretty darned good. That should diminish the level of trust among scoundrels, usually a good thing.

It is also a message that should Assad fall and Hizballah’s weapons supplies be put in jeopardy as a result, Israel can annihilate any Hizballah military concentration from the air. Israel showed that Syrian air defense is almost completely ineffective against F-16s. What we have here is a kind of game of chicken in which Israel just upped the stakes: Think you can harm us? You better think about what we can do to you, now and especially in the not-too-distant future, before you dare.

In recent weeks, too, Hizballah’s contribution to the Syrian regime’s survival strategy has been significant. About 2,000 or so Hizballah regulars have turned the tide around the strategically critical area of Homs, and the link-up zone between Homs and Damascus. Expert observers who have been on the ground have been unified in judging recent military events to have shifted the momentum in the civil war to the regime. That may also be why the regime felt confident enough to perpetrate the over-the-top disgusting May 4 massacre at Baniyas—the first sign of a campaign to “cleanse” (aka mass murder) Sunnis from majority-Alawi areas. Alawis murdered more than 400 unarmed civilians, dozens of them little children. The more effective Hizballah is at helping the Assad regime, the more mass murders of Sunnis in the “wrong” places we can expect.

Now, from the Israeli point of view, there’s not much to choose from between fanatical murderous Sunnis who hate Jews and fanatical murderous Shi’a who hate Jews. But on balance these days, Assad’s going down is the preferable lesser evil, since that would reverberate to the mullahs’ detriment, and downsizing Iran’s capacity for doing harm is the number one priority as Jerusalem sees things. Israel does not have pretensions to play balancer between Sunnis and Shi’a across the region; you can’t sport with a shark using a birch rod with a cotton line. Neither should the U.S. government imagine that it has the understanding, the ability, the patience or the skill to do such a thing either. Israel’s messing with Hizballah has far more limited, if not insignificant, purposes.

As important in this regard is the message on the crawl, so to speak, that attended the “video” of the strikes: No one is going to stop Israel from doing what it regards as necessary for its security. Israel demonstrated earlier this month the truth of what President Obama and Defense Secretary Hagel have recently said while standing on Israeli soil: Israel has an unrestricted right to self-defense.

Let it be noted, finally, that not so much as one eyelash worth of criticism surfaced from U.S. government sources about those May 4-5 strikes. To the contrary: the omnipresent body language of international politics showed a raised chin, a knowing glint in the eyes, and a bit of a strut in Washington, all without having to say a word except that, as the White House spokesman Josh Earnest curtly put it in answer to a question, “we’re in very close touch” with Israel “on a range of issues.” Very little mention has been made of the U.S. reaction here, but for those in the region the silence was deafening. Administration signals are either all over the place or no place at all on Syria, Iran, Russia, the IRS, the Justice Department AP caper, pending immigration reform legislation and more besides; but on Israel the signals are consistent and unmistakable.

Posted in Israel, Syria | 1 Comment
May 17, 2013

Benghazigate and Russia/Syria Follow-Up

It’s no fun blogging at moving targets.

Since I tried on May 8 to make the simple point that Gregory Hicks’s testimony was being used for partisan purposes, and hence deflected attention from the Obama Administration’s real, seminal errors on Libya—which date to March 2011, not September 2012—some interesting developments have taken place.

It is now clear, for example, that at the root of the errors made last September was a mostly typical Interagency dysfunction. The Benghazi consulate facility, where Ambassador Stevens happened to be at the wrong time, was a CIA operation in the main. We now know a lot more about the migration of the infamous “talking points” from CIA to State to Susan Rice’s mouth at the UN delegation up in Turtle Bay, and anyone who has ever been either a producer or user of intelligence products can imagine how anything written by a blabbermouthing State Department would be denatured to near nothingness by a CIA trying, naturally and habitually, to say as little as possible.

This is a neat flip on the old adage that a diplomat is someone who thinks twice about saying nothing. These days, and in this case for sure, our diplomats (certainly not to exclude Ambassador Rice) have tended to babble unnecessarily, and it’s the intel types who have best fit the old description.

My main point in that May 8 post still stands, however—and I emphatically stand by it.

I then tried on May 10 to get beneath Russian motives for finally saying “yes” to a Syria peace parley, and in the process I suggested that the current Secretary of State is perhaps the most naïve person to occupy that office since Frank Kellogg. And no sooner did that post go up that word began to spread of an impending SA-300 surface-to-air missile supply from Russia to Syria.

Now, in the post, I said that Putin making Kerry wait for three hours before seeing him was a kind of body language suggesting that the former was deep in a process of snookering the latter.  I tried to discern what form the snookering might take: stall tactic and/or strategic rake-off.  The SA-300 “announcement”, made before Kerry’s seat in Moscow had even cooled off, deepens the impression. It’s a little like kicking someone in the ass as they’re headed out the door. And then the way the Russians orchestrated the Ryan Fogle expulsion, even more so.  So since May 10 we now have a trifecta of evidence that Obama and Kerry are reading a Rocky and Bulwinkle script, except it’s not very funny.

Too bad none of this was known, or had even happened, when I wrote and posted. But then my point would have been so obvious that it might not have been worth making.

Posted in Libya, Syria | 1 Comment
May 10, 2013

What’s The Russian Angle On Syria?

The big news two days ago was the announcement, by Secretary Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, of plans to hold a conference on Syria sometime this month. Now, if this conference—assuming it ever happens—can stop the civil war and lead to a relatively smooth landing (“smooth” in this case is a very elastic word) for the post-Assad future, it ought to be something that interests us. Since we are wise to keep American boots far away from Syria, and since the Administration may have blown a chance to engage Turkish force, with NATO and Arab League support, to stop the bloodletting more than a year ago, there are, as the President and others have recently said, no other good options.

But let’s interrogate this proposition a bit more carefully, shall we? First, let’s ask “why now?” Why have the Russians agreed to this now, when they were so reluctant to do so before? After all, this has been a central element of the Administration’s policy, so-called, all along. And my readers will please note that while, at the time, I lambasted the idea of seconding U.S. policy in Syria to the tender mercies of Vladimir Putin, a part of avoiding any kind of pre-election kinetic response, I also granted that in the fullness of time—after the battlefield situation developed further to Assad’s detriment—this sort of ploy might prove useful as part of an endgame. Will it?

The mainstream press has a theory of “why now?” As Anne Gearan and Scott Wilson put it in the Washington Post, it seems that “Russian support for Assad has softened since the emergence of new evidence that is government has probably used chemical weapons on a small scale in the war.” It may well be that the Russians are finally ready to throw Assad to the wolves, but this simply cannot be the reason. The idea that the Russian leadership has been shocked—shocked, I say—morally affronted even, by the use of chemical weapons in Syria has got to rank as one of the most hilarious statements I have ever read in a supposedly serious newspaper. Are Gearan and Wilson kidding?

They adduce, too, that the protraction of the war in Syria is complicating Russian relations with Israel and with the broader Middle East. Not as funny, but just as silly.

And they observe that, “Kerry said that the administration’s decision on whether to arm the Syrian rebels—a move Obama has resisted—could be avoided if there is progress toward a political settlement.” Bingo!—now we’re getting somewhere, except that Gearan and Wilson don’t know where. Could it be that given the President’s tortured body language over his chemical weapons “red line”—reaching a level of equivocation that puts him nearly in the same category as Bill Clinton’s ruminations over what “is” is—the Russians are helping him to “just say no”? Do ya think?

So maybe the Russians mean by all this no more than the fabrication of a substitute for the ill-fated Kofi Annan mission, which had the effect of buying time for Assad to murder his way out of his problem. The fact that Putin reportedly kept Kerry waiting for three hours while he talked to his cabinet does not bode so well, if you know how to read Putin’s body language. If that is the case, there will be no conference, or in any event no real business to conduct at it if it ever does convene.

But perhaps this is too cynical a reading. Perhaps the Russians are finally ready to boot Assad, and hope that by participating in the facilitation of a transition they can hold on to their base at Tartus and retain some influence in the area, including selling weapons to an assortment of patrons. Maybe they’ve concluded that half a loaf is better than none, which is what they’d likely end up with if the rebels win. If so, if the Russians are serious about a conference, what sort of pre-conference deal might that portend (and yes, please be serious, of course there would have to be one)?

The Russians know that the United States, Israel and the West generally would benefit from Assad’s fall because Syria is Iran’s only ally, and the main means by which the Iranian regimes exerts influence in the Levant. Hizballah cannot readily maintain its strength without the Syrian factor. So if the Russians prove willing to help us dump Assad and harm Iranian interests, it’s a sure thing they’re going to demand something considerable in return. Not only would they not be Russians otherwise, they would not be competent diplomats of any description otherwise. So what would they ask?

Of course, I don’t know. But whatever they might suggest, I could imagine a situation in which the Russians double-down diplomatically by suggesting themselves (not exactly for the first time) as intermediaries in defusing the Iranian diplomatic bomb as a way to ward off the mullahs’ attainment of a real one. The Russians don’t hunger for an Iranian regime with nukes, though the prospect of one complicates our lives a lot more than it does theirs—so Moscow has been happy to stand aside and play risk-free irritant. And they see the President’s body language here, too: Obama will do practically anything, they suppose, to avoid having to take military action against Iran. That could put Putin potentially in a situation where Russia can play diplomatic middleman, able to extract quid pro quo “commissions” from all sides—American and Iranian, European, Arab and possibly Israeli, too. What a peachy prospect, huh?

In any event, time will tell if the Russians are preparing a stall tactic, or if they really mean to deal. Either way, those who think that the heavens have just parted, and that rays of warm light are about to bathe poor benighted Syria in soft waves of diplomatic altruism, are in for a disappointment. But hey, maybe they can get a job writing news copy for the Washington Post.

Posted in Iran, Israel, Syria | 2 Comments
May 8, 2013

Benghazigate: Republicans Missing the Point

It may be that, even as I am writing this very sentence, a mid-level State Department official named Gregory Hicks is testifying before a Senate Committee and, in effect, connecting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (never mind the hapless Susan Rice) to a cover-up in the aftermath of the tragic events of September 11, 2012, in Benghazi, Libya. You might be wondering, why am I writing about this before his testimony, when by the time you read this he will have given it? The answer is that it doesn’t matter what happens during this hearing, at least as far as Libya and U.S. policy toward that country are concerned.

This hearing is not really about Libya, or U.S. policy, or what actually happened on and after September 11 of last year. This is about the presidential politics of 2016. The Republicans, led by John McCain and associates, are trying to smear the reputation of the person they think is the odds-on favorite to be the Democratic presidential nominee: Hillary Clinton. Personally, I’m not enthusiastic about the prospect of Mrs. Clinton as President; nor do I think she was such a good Secretary of State. But it is a fantasy, and a lurid fantasy at that, to try to hold her personally accountable for what happened during and after September 11, 2012, in Libya.

More than that, it is a distraction from the key policy lesson we should by now have learned from that whole unfortunate episode. Whatever the real mix of reasons that went into it, the Libya war was a mistake. It has touched off a cascade of completely predictable misanthropies (if I predicted them, which I did, I take it for granted that others, not least then-Defense Secretary Gates, did too). It has, to take just one example, ensnarled the French in a real mess in Mali, probably made things worse in increasingly ghoulish northern Nigeria, and it is already washing back into Libya, threatening to alienate the southwestern, Tuareg chunk of Fezzan permanently from the Libyan state (such as it is). The sin that Susan Rice and Hillary Clinton (and others) committed was starting this stupid war in the first place, and then having no plan whatsoever for a post-Qaddafi “Phase IV” (remember Iraq?). That is the decision that began the sequence of events that got Ambassador Stevens and three other American officials killed.

Why aren’t Republicans on the make making this argument?  Why can’t they connect these obvious dots? Because they are in the main cheap hawks, wanting to use force more or less promiscuously without worrying, to all appearances, about aftereffects or how we would pay for more major military operations in the region. Of course, if they were in power, instead of in a position to lob partisan propaganda grenades from the sidelines, they might adopt a more reasonable perspective, but they aren’t, so they don’t. Whatever the reasons, that’s all the Republicans have to offer these days on national security policy—unless one wants to reference the small-minority Rand Paul isolationist wing of the GOP (and please, let’s not do that).

Actually, if the GOP wants to give its inner-hawk room to fly, there’s an obvious way to do it—and it’s not at all obvious to me why they don’t jump on it with all their talons. Consider: It has been nearly eight months since Ambassador Stevens’s murder, and the U.S. government has not done a damned visible thing about it. We have a pretty good, if not necessarily court-actionable, idea who was behind this—a guy named Ahmed Abu Khattala. Not long after the murders, Abu Khatalla held a kind of informal press conference at an outdoor restaurant in which he strutted, lied a lot, and seemed to take pleasure, if not explicit credit, for the attack on the Benghazi consulate. Yes, it took us nearly a decade to find bin-Laden (and in this light, and considering that Ayman al-Zawahiri is still breathing, why anyone would think that this was some sort of glorious success I swear I cannot understand), so eight months is not a long time in comparison. Yes, but still…

Now why is this? Well, I don’t doubt that Mike Vickers over at Joint Special Operations Command is trying to figure a way to whack this guy (and possibly some of his associates), but with the rules of engagement being what they are, and with the divisions of lawyers sprawled all over the Defense Department as they are, it’s not easy to get a clean shot. More important, no doubt, is that the State Department probably opposes doing anything without the cooperation and assent of the Libyan government. But the Libyan government is hopelessly feckless. We have not even been able to “interview” Abu Khatalla; Libyan authorities won’t pick him up or question him for fear of literal retaliation. And it seems clear that achieving swift justice in this matter is not high on the list of White House priorities.

So nothing seems to be happening, and nothing probably will happen—which is predictable since it, too, is part of a very unfortunate pattern. Consider that five U.S. Ambassadors have been murdered in office since 1965, three of them in the greater Middle East. In 1973, the PLO murdered Cleo Noel Jr. in Khartoum, Sudan. No retribution was ever exacted for his murder. In 1976, Ambassador Francis E. Meloy Jr. was murdered in Beirut.  No retribution was ever exacted for his murder. In 1979, Ambassador Adolph Dubs was murdered in Kabul. No retribution was ever exacted for his murder. And most recently Ambassador Stevens in Libya. Well, if you hate the United States, why not murder an American diplomat or three? There’s no price for it, apparently.

This is what the Republicans should be shouting about: the abject failure of the Obama Administration to raise any deterrent to attacks against American diplomatic personnel abroad.  But since it’s a lot less partisan an issue, they apparently can’t be bothered to think that far along.

Posted in Libya | 24 Comments
April 23, 2013

The Real Boston Story

Now that media excitement is beginning to die down concerning the recent horrific events in Boston, it is time for more reflective analyses to take pride of place. It used to be that we could rely on the mainstream print media for at least some of this reflection. That cannot be ruled out, but it is no longer likely. Case in point: Now, more than 10 days after the finish-line bombings, I have yet to encounter a single media story or commentary that identifies the proper analog to what occurred in Boston.

In three weeks during the month of October 2002, 10 people were killed and several others seriously injured by what became known as the beltway sniper attacks. John Allen Muhammed and Lee Boyd Malvo were responsible for this killing spree, which veritably paralyzed the Washington, DC area. The parallels between the sniper attacks of October 2002 and the bombings in Boston earlier this month are quite striking.

  • The killings were perpetrated by two relatively young males, the elder one clearly in command and the younger one compliant and mainly clueless.
  • Radical Islam had some hard-to-define, attenuated impact on the motives behind both sets of crimes, but psychopathology of one kind or another clearly had the upper hand in both cases. (I witnessed John Allen Muhammed trying to defend himself in a Montgomery County, Maryland courtroom, as he cross-examined Lee Boyd Malvo; I just happened to be in the building as part of jury duty on a completely different case, and just let myself into the room to watch. And I can tell you that Muhammed was very not normal, albeit in a contained and hence very spooky manner.)
  • Just two untrained individuals, with no military background or ties or connections of any logistical kind to any group or movement, managed to paralyze an entire major urban area of the United States. [Post-datum erratum: This is inaccurate. Muhammed was in the US Army, fought in Desert Storm, and was a good shot--sorry, but I simply did not remember that when I was drafting.]
  • Law enforcement eventually shut down the operation, and the justice system prepared to punish the evildoers, in its own peculiar and slothful way. (John Allen Muhammed was found guilty of murder in September 2003 and was sentenced to death; but the death penalty was not inflicted until more than six years later.)

Obviously, there are also some differences between the two cases. The Boston case was more concentrated in time, and if one counts the murder of Sean Collier, there were only two iterations of murderous behavior. In the DC sniper case, the trail of murder actually started elsewhere and involved more than a dozen separate incidents over a longer period.

Nevertheless, what unites the two incidents is that they involved attacks on soft targets. There was no reasonable way to protect those slain by the beltway snipers, just as there was no reasonable way to prevent what happened at the Boston Marathon. The FBI could not have prevented either tragedy, in the latter case because the law in all but extraordinary cases prevents close surveillance of a potential terrorist who has not broken any law.

Yes, the FBI had a file on the elder Tsarnaev, thanks to a Russian inquiry, but since 9/11 we have failed to face the fact that the FBI, which is and has always been part and parcel of the Justice Department, is never going to be much good at domestic counterterrorism. These guys do the best they can, but the culture of law enforcement—putting guilty people in jail after maximally non-appealable legal proceedings—runs at very different angles from the culture of preventing terror attacks, the sort of thing MI5 does in the United Kingdom. Almost no terrorists have police records before they commit murderous acts, which is why our current legal set-up is helpless to prevent atrocities like the one in Boston.

And that fact highlights, just by the way, the predictable inanity of the ACLU chastising authorities for not reading the younger Tsarnaev his Miranda rights. Under the disheveled circumstances, it was clearly the right thing to do.

Let’s quickly get past a few other silly reactions to the Boston tragedy. Restricting immigration or disrupting negotiations on immigration law reform are irrelevant. Gun control laws are also irrelevant. Just about every foreign policy consideration I can think of is irrelevant. How marginal populations in United States become radicalized, whether it be religious radicalism or some other sort, is not completely irrelevant but it might as well be for practical purposes, given that the potential ways and means here are so utterly capacious. TSA is certainly irrelevant, and so for most part are the other mostly counterproductive forms of bureaucratized paranoia with which we have saddled ourselves over the past decade.

This doesn’t mean that radical Islamic organizations, not least what’s left of al-Qaeda, can be safely ignored. It doesn’t mean that having made our border control agencies more integrated and functional was a bad idea (though we still have a ways to go on that score). It doesn’t mean that sane immigration policy reform or better gun control laws are bad ideas. But none of this has anything to do with what happened in Boston.

After the beltway sniper affair, I was concerned that other semi-rational but not entirely dysfunctional lone-wolf terrorists might go in for copycatting. As all security experts understand, but are usually reluctant to talk about in public, it is all too easy to bomb or shoot up the ticketing and baggage retrieval areas of airports. Same goes for “big box” shopping venues, movie theaters, sports events of all kinds, houses of worship, schools, and one could go on. Back in the autumn of 2002, copycatting did not happen. I’d like to be confident, based on that non-experience, that it won’t happen again. But we don’t know that.

So what does this realization about soft-target domestic terrorism tell us?  It tells us that we cannot defend against such attacks except at disproportionate cost and by dint of entirely counterproductive methods. (Try to imagine, if you dare, TSA-type geniuses deployed at every Walmart and cineplex in the country……) It reminds us of what the strategy of terrorism has always been and still is: The use of deadly force against innocents in order to provoke authorities to be untrue to and destructive of their own principles. It is a strategy of the weak, and its success requires a sucker to conspire in his own defeat.

So what to do? Well, the first thing is to keep organized terror operations, foreign or domestic, out of the soft-target business. To the extent that we have return addresses for such organizations via intelligence gathering and monitoring, we can do this.

Second, when such horrible acts occur, we must be stoic.  President Obama had this exactly right the other night when he said that terrorism will fail because Americans will refuse to be terrorized. Even if it’s not true, it was still the proper thing to say.

But third, for Americans to be stoic, and so to be not terrorized, the American media, and entertainment “industry” generally, must stifle its addiction to the sensationalist, the maudlin and the perverse.  It was no accident, I think, that the finish to the Boston Marathon attracted the Tsarnaevs because they knew that their evil deed would be caught on film and video, and almost instantaneously transmitted worldwide.

I confess that I don’t know how to get a pandering, irresponsible media to stop pandering and to stop being irresponsible. I do know that the incentive media exposure offers would-be terrorists is perhaps the biggest long-term problem we have when it comes to potential outbreaks of soft-target lone-wolf terrorism. The hawkers of razor blades and bad beer need for the show to go on, and what was the tragedy of the Boston Marathon from a media perspective if not an (obviously unscripted) episode of reality TV?

Posted in General | 25 Comments
April 19, 2013

Pondering a 70th Anniversary

Yaroslavl and Warsaw 2011 212

Today, April 19, marks the 70th anniversary of the beginning of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising. What can one possibly say about this event that has not already been said many times over many years? What is there, if anything, that might be noteworthy about a 70th anniversary?

Maybe there is something to say; hence this post. Forgive me please, dear reader, if you are already familiar with some of the backstory I tell below. As I grow older, I am constantly surprised by what younger people do not know, just as I am constantly surprised by what I am capable of forgetting. So I tell this backstory for more than one reason.

Let me suggest, too, that aside from Jews, and Poles and Germans, others may find this story of some interest, for embedded in the understanding of it may reside lessons that transcend any one time and place. No, no, landsmen, do not worry: I am not about to universalize the Holocaust and banalize it by so doing. But the Holocaust can’t help but universalize itself, at least at the margins, since everyone involved in it, perpetrators and victims alike, were, after all, human beings.

* * *

Back on April 8 many Jews and some others observed what is usually called Yom Ha-Shoah in Hebrew (יום הזיכרון לשואה ולגבורה) or Holocaust Remembrance Day. There is an historical connection between what happened on April 19, 1943, in Warsaw and this relatively new marker in the Jewish calendar, and it is a connection about which few seem to be aware.

After the re-born State of Israel came into being in May 1948, a discussion ensued about how to memorialize the Jewish victims of the Nazi genocide. As is sometimes (!!!) the case when Jews discuss such things, some disagreement was in evidence. Let us briefly recall its nature.

Many standard-issue Zionists of that time, philosophically muscular to the bone, wanted no part of any memorialization. For them, the entire period of the exile, from the year 135 CE, when the Bar Kochba rebellion against Rome failed, until May 1948, was an ignominious (if also very protracted) era in Jewish history. These self-avowed secular socialists wanted to reconnect Jewish history to its glorious roots and saw the Holocaust as a shameful episode. Like lambs to the slaughter they went, these stalwart new Jews used to say, in private if not in public, and some so-called Jewish communal leaders, they charged, were complicit in the whole horrific episode. They did not fight back, and to the extent their otherworldly and superstition-based piety contributed to their passivity (a lot, most believed), then damn that piety and everything associated with it. Rabbis and anti-Semites caused each other, they believed. Commemorating the Holocaust, they feared, would contribute to the retention of the distorted “exile” values they wished to be rid of for all time.

Many religious Jews (and there were and remain more than one type) also rejected the idea of establishing a new day in the Jewish calendar for this purpose. One major figure, whose nickname was the Hazon Ish, ruled that Jews no longer had the authority to create new calendar entries. Others, the majority to be sure, reasoned that other fast days in the calendar sufficed for the purpose. Some put forth the 10th of the Hebrew month of Tevet, whose origin has to do with the first Babylonian breech of the walls of Jerusalem in the 6th century BCE. Others preferred to stretch still further the contents of the even more solemn fast of the 9th of Av, which marks the destruction of both the first and second Temples, and over the years came as well to mark other catastrophes, like the massive destruction of the First Crusade period.

Between the muscular secularists and the Orthodox, however, others wished to go forward in establishing a special day of commemoration for the victims of the Holocaust. This was eventually accomplished in 1953, when Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion and President Yitzhak Ben-Tvi signed the law establishing the day. The key was the testimony and insistence of the few survivors of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising that there should be such a day. Their cachet was powerful enough to turn the tide of debate, and it was a testimony of great insight as well as social power.

If I may summarize, the Warsaw Ghetto survivors and those who rallied to their view decried the image of the Jewish victims of the Holocaust as sheep led docilely to their own slaughter. They pointed out that Jewish communities in Europe under Nazi occupation were not organized and were not armed. In every community there were Orthodox and secular and many of in-between views; not in a single national community or even a major city was there an overarching organizational structure that would have been capable of directing resistance to the German army. Jews in the various European countries under the Nazi boot had not even a common language. The further east one went, to but not so much into Russia, the more Yiddish was the language of daily use, but Dutch Jews spoke Dutch, Danish Jews Danish, French Jews French and so on.

In the Warsaw Ghetto, things were different. Jews there lived in close quarters, the population was culturally homogeneous for the most part, and the population was per force organized. They obtained weapons by various means, including from members of the Polish underground. They had heard about the Nazi intention to liquidate the Ghetto finally on the first day of Passover, the holiday that celebrates freedom, redemption and hope. They knew that Himmler had meant the liquidation to be a birthday present to Hitler. They had nothing left to lose. Under these conditions, Jews fought bravely, holding off the Germans for an entire month, and inflicting many casualties.

It was important for this distinction between the various conditions in which Jews found themselves to be made in a young Israeli state, loudly and clearly. And this caucus insisted that the name of the day be Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day—יום הזיכרון לשואה ולגבורה—so that not only those who perished without hope of resisting, but those who fought back and the righteous gentiles who helped Jews, sometimes at the cost of their own lives, would also be included. It is a shame that so few American Jews know the actual full name, and this the nuanced meaning, of the day.

As a result of the Warsaw Ghetto survivors’ testimony, some favored establishing Yom HaShoah v’Hagvurah on the 14th of Nisan, the day just before the first Seder, the day the Warsaw Ghetto uprising began. The Orthodox objected on two grounds, however. First, this was too onerous an obligation on a day that families were preparing diligently for the holiday—and, indeed, there is a lot to do. Second, they said, it was not permissible to establish a fast day, or even a sad or solemn day, in the month of Nisan, when we are commanded to celebrate.

So what happened? The powers-that-were decided to compromise: They established the day of commemoration on the 27th of Nisan. Some argued that this date fell within the seven weeks of the counting of the Omer, which, with the exception of Lag B’Omer (the 33rd day of the Omer), was a semi-mourning period anyway for traditional Jews. And 27 Nisan was set because it was eight days before Israeli Independence Day. The symbolism is fairly obvious, to some at least: Modern Israel arose from the flames of the Nazi crematoria and, as in the eight days of circumcision, an eight-count later the country re-entered its covenant with history as a free, independent and living nation.

At first at least, this compromise pleased only some. The more left-wing muscular Zionists ignored the day, just as they were left cold by the idea of establishing Yad Vashem. The haredim (ultra-Orthodox) ignored it too, and most of them still do. When the sirens sound nationwide on 27 Nisan, and every other Jew in Israel observes two minutes of silence in place, the haredim go on with their schools and business and so forth, because they do not recognize the authority of the state in such matters. They do not accept the secular-religious synthesis within Zionism brokered largely by former Chief Rabbi Avraham Yitzhak Kook and epitomized by his characterization of the State of Israel as “the beginning of the dawn of our redemption.” This non-acceptance is why, in large part, the majority of Israelis disparages or detests the haredim, and it is why, incidentally, the unusual new Israeli coalition, which has no Orthodox party representation, looks the way it does.

Over time, all Israeli Jews but the haredim have accepted Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day. This is because it’s taught in the schools and people become socialized to it that way. Those haredim who do mark the day do so as part of other, long-established fast days—their original point of view. But there are still some ultra-Orthodox who do not mark the day at all, or commemorate the Holocaust as such as a singular event. They have an argument to make on this score, and it is not an argument to be dismissed before it is honestly understood.

This argument, if I may do it justice in a very brief summary, has two main parts.

First, just as we are commanded to “blot out the memory of Amalek; do not forget” (Exodus 17 and Deuteronomy 25), we are, mutatis mutandis, commanded to blot out the memory of Hitler and the Nazis (“y’makh sh’mo”). Now, in the Biblical command there is an oft-noted paradox: Remembering to blot out a memory seems a contradiction in terms, for the act of remembering to blot out presupposes the impossibility of blotting out, doesn’t it?

Second, and you will soon see how this connects back to the first, as horrible as the Holocaust was, there have been other episodes that either seemed at the time, or actually were, just as horrible. I have already alluded to the terrible destruction of the Jewish communities in the Rhineland during the last year of the 11th and the early years of the 12th centuries. The Khmelnitsky massacres of the mid-17th century come also to mind. Back further in time, what the Romans did during and after the Bar Kochba rebellion was no picnic either; some 25-30 percent of the population was slaughtered according to most historical estimates. The point? We should not privilege one horror over others because we lack the perspective and understanding to do so. Doesn’t claiming with certainty that this one is the worst raise the bar—God forbid—for the next one? We don’t know the reasons such things happen, but appointing ourselves judges to establish singular days of commemoration suggests somehow that we do. This, the argument goes, is arrogance.

* * *

So what, then, does the tradition do with such challenges? Let’s go back to 1099 for a moment. Few Jews know this (and that includes haredim, whose approach to Judaism is studiously anti-historical, as well as poorly educated secularized Jews), but the “mourner’s kaddish”—the memorial prayer for the dead—was a post-Crusade innovation. A hasid today may insist that Jacob said mourner’s kaddish for his parents or for his wife, Rachel, but he didn’t. The paragraph in the Passover Hagaddah that is recited during the Seder when the door is opened for Elijah—“Pour out thy wrath upon the nations that know thee not. . . .”—was also added around the same time.

But note carefully, for this is the point: These (and other) innovations in the liturgy do not mention the Crusades or the crusaders. They encompass the events without specifying them. This solves the aforementioned paradox: It is indeed possible to blot out the specific name of evil, but still remember the need to fight evil based on past experience. One can do this by transforming the prosaic history people endure into the poetry of the soul, into the syntax of the spirit. That is how the evolving Jewish liturgy has handled tragedy without extinguishing hope. This is the way it tries to balance respect for martyrs with hope in the future. This is what defines, in my view, the genius within this tradition.

As I argued in my Jewcentricity book, the contemporary Jewish community in America has more or less failed to understand this. By indulging in the conceit of the contemporary, the Holocaust has become a form of ancestor worship for too many. As critics from Jacob Neusner to Irving Howe have complained going back now many years, semi-assimilated Jewish Americans have replaced authentic Judaism and the God at its core with a “lite” politicized version in which the State of Israel is the deity and the Holocaust its ritual liturgy. Both God and normative Judaism have been rendered completely superfluous to it. Note too that the regimen of mourning within Jewish tradition has temporal distinction and boundaries: first seven days, then thirty days, then eleven months. But it ends, and it ends because the purpose of the regimen is to assist the mourners to return to the blessings of normal, everyday life. A Holocaust cult that seems never to end is profoundly un-Jewish.

It is this unhappy reality that led me many years ago to create Garfinkle’s Rule: No one who does not participate in the building of, or in the dwelling in, a succah has any right to participate in a Holocaust remembrance event, especially one in which the Heroism part of the day’s name goes unmentioned. (I capitalize these words because it is conventional; there are no capital letters in Hebrew.) I still hold by my rule. If the joys and elations of the tradition are sacrificed to the lachrymose and the ashen, a faux-Judaism that cannot be successfully transmitted to future generations will gnaw its way into consciousness. It already has, as the inter-marriage and assimilation numbers testify. Pace the ridiculous claims of those who have argued that burgeoning anti-Semitism in America is causing assimilation, the truth is that Jews themselves are causing it pretty much all by themselves.

* * *

With this in mind, what can we say about the meaning of seventy years? An answer is on the way, but first a story.

September before last my wife and I traveled to Poland (she for the first time, me for the second) mainly for the purpose of visiting my paternal grandfather’s hometown of Suwalki (he was born there in 1872), in the far northeastern part of today’s Poland, near the Lithuanian border. Suwalki used to have a sizable and thriving Jewish community before September 1939. It was annihilated during the war almost in its entirety. Had my grandfather not left for America as a youngster, I would very probably never have been me.

Suwalki today is a pleasant enough town. But aside from the Jewish cemetery, and a single plaque on a building commemorating the birthplace of a certain person (Avraham Stern), there is no sign that Jews ever lived there, let alone did so for centuries. The old Jewish hospital, the Jewish Y, the rabbi’s house, and several other buildings in the old Jewish part of town have all been repurposed. Chances are that most of the residents of Suwalki today have never met a Jew, and do not know their town’s own rich history thanks in large part to the Communists, much assisted, of course, by the mere but relentless passage of time.

Yaroslavl and Warsaw 2011 156

We were in Warsaw a few days, too. You can see on the sidewalks near where the Ghetto used to be memorial inscriptions testifying to its having existed. We saw a guide showing a group of Canadian Jewish tourists around, but there’s nothing to see, really, except in one’s own poorly or well-tutored imagination, as the case may be. Warsaw was all but leveled during the 1944 Uprising, as the Red Army waited knowingly, and cynically, on the far side of the Vistula for the Germans to destroy the place before their retreat.

A single Warsaw synagogue survived the war, in badly damaged condition. It has been refurbished beautifully and functions again today. When we went in a Talmud havrusa was in progress in a side room; two guys going at each other with vigor and care. But of prewar Jewish Warsaw, there is little else left. A new Jewish museum is in preparation, and when we were there large canvas-banner photographs of Jewish life before 1939 adorned the outside of the building then undergoing refurbishment. The whole idea of a Jewish museum in Warsaw fills me with equivocation, I must admit. A Jewish museum, after all, is what the Nazis planned once they had killed all the Jews. But if the Poles feel as though they want and need to do this, and have the support of Jewish groups, as they do, I’m fine with it. Their wartime suffering too was enormous, unspeakable; no avenue of healing should be off-limits to them as far as I’m concerned. Don’t forget, too, that soon after the war the Jews could rejoice in the birth of Israel, but Poles got cadres of vicious Communist thugs suppressing them for decade upon decade.

garfNow, finally, about the number 70: Psalm 90, characterized as a prayer of Moses, reads at verse 10 like this: “The span of our life is seventy years, or if we are strong eighty years, but the best of them is trouble and sorrow, for they quickly pass and we fly away.”  Leaving aside for now the many other symbolic uses of the number 70, and of the letter “ayin” that represents it—and there are at least a dozen in the tradition—the Psalm makes the simple point that the human lifespan isn’t too far from seventy years on average. When we fly away our memories fly with them, unless we have made an effort to pass them on in one way or another.

I think it’s fair to say that the world has learned something from the war and the Holocaust. When hateful people begin referring to enemy groups as insects or clods of human feces or as sons of pigs and monkeys, we all know now, much better than we did in the 1930s, that this is part and parcel of the dehumanization that invariably precedes genocide. This is a hopeful collective memory earned from the war, and of course it applies universally.

Needless to say, there have been other, literally monumental efforts to preserve the memory of the Holocaust, and of the heroisms great and small of World War II. But as the generation that lived during the Warsaw Ghetto uprising and the war flies from us with each passing day, we Jews, anyway, ought to know better than to rely on stone and glass monuments and buildings and sculptures and physical structures to preserve memory. That is not the Jewish way. Other civilizations throughout history have built great buildings—pyramids and palaces and castles and cathedrals and great walls, and some have even carved huge idols in mountainsides. Yet all of those civilizations have either perished, been layered over to oblivion, or are likely one day to be layered over. Jews instead built palaces of memory in the hearts and minds of their children using words and melodies, not bricks and stone. Jews have translated their historical experiences into ramparts of the spirit.

So the challenge is not that we will forget the Holocaust, anymore than we have forgotten the spilled blood of the First Crusade. The challenge is that we will remember it the wrong way, and so forget, and therefore lose, what is really important to us. If you want specifics here, direct your attention to how Psalm 90 continues: “Satisfy us in the morning with Your lovingkindness, that we may sing and rejoice all our days. . . . Let Your deeds be seen by your servants, and Your glory by their children. . . .”

Understand now? It’s about singing and rejoicing, and it’s about children. We have maybe seventy years, and when those years are gone no one will care how many tears we cried over our slain or how many Holocaust ceremonies we attended. We must remember our sorrows by embedding them in a tradition whose strength is that it is suffused with singing and rejoicing, a tradition that sees a child as raw material for the greatest monument anyone can build: a decent, compassionate, brave and loving human being. That, I humbly submit, is what this 70th anniversary means, or ought to mean, not just to Jews, but, if I may be so bold, to everyone.

Posted in General, Jewcentricity | 16 Comments
March 19, 2013

Hey, You’re Truly Unlimited: Didn’t You Know?

It’s both satisfying and terrifying to finish a book. It’s satisfying because it’s a little like finally getting a Haystacks Calhoun clone to remove himself from your prone chest cavity. It’s terrifying not so much because of what others may think of it—though that’s not an entirely negligible concern—but because of the fear that the book might have been lots better if you’d worked harder or had more time.  Sometimes the best sentences finally form and key data points only become available after you’ve closed up shop, and that fear tends to be sharper the more expansive and open-ended the book’s topic.

That’s certainly how I feel about my new ebook, Broken: American Political Dysfunction and What To Do About It. I’m gratified that at least some people have already expressed appreciation for what I try to do in that book—and that includes Thomas Friedman’s generous call-out in this past Sunday’s New York Times, under the somewhat improbable title “Lose-Lose vs. Win-Win-Win-Win-Win.” But I’m finding it hard to let go of the subject despite having let go of the subject (if you know what I mean), because everywhere I look, it seems, I see more grist for my recently shuttered mill.

Thank heaven, therefore, for this blog—where I have the opportunity to supplement Broken on an ad hoc basis on those occasions when I can’t bear not to, and I can do it here without leaking footnotes all over the place.

That’s exactly what I’m about to do now, but in all fairness, especially to readers who have helped me with this project along the way as it rolled out in pieces here starting last year, take a warning: Below you will encounter a long, somewhat esoteric discussion in political theory/sociology that only eventually reaches a conclusion you might (or might not) care about. That conclusion takes as its prooftext, so to speak, the new Sprint advertising campaign that most of you resident in the USA will have noticed by now: “Be Truly Unlimited.”

My argument is that “Be Truly Unlimited” is not just an ad campaign, although it obviously is that, too. Sprint is trying to sell unlimited minutes for some carefully calculated market price, and the deal appeal resides largely in its simplicity: No more counting minutes or wondering about budget thresholds breeched, no more fuss with rollovers and so on. (I’m not in a position to comment on the commercial proposition, since I’ve never owned or paid for my own cell phone.) But I think the marketing team is aiming to leverage a strengthening American meme the larger consequences of which are somewhere between capacious and portentous, depending on one’s point of view. To see that, however, you must be able to decode the glitz and glitter of our crowded semiotic environment to find the core attitudes and assumptions, some we’re self-aware of and some we’re not, beneath. So if you’re ready, warnings be damned, let’s turn over some symbolic rocks and get started.

*  *  *

It in the introduction to Broken: American Political Dysfunction and What To Do About It, I take some pains to explain why I choose a middling level of analysis, a Goldilocks level that’s neither too superficial nor too deep. I offer a teaser pointed toward deeper explanatory templates for our current difficulties, but soon leave off from them. The reason, as I explain in the book, is that deeper cultural explanations, however interesting and even true they may be, have close to zero chance to gain policy traction. They don’t speak wonk.

That said, there are a few verities about political life that simply cannot be ignored despite their falling outside the ambit of practical policy analysis. The first and most important of these is that most societies, most of the time, tend to govern themselves to one extent or another without much help from formal political structures. The glue, metaphorically speaking, that enables societies to do this is referred to as social trust, or sometimes as social capital.

All this really means—and in the book I refer to this key concept on several occasions—is that people in their communities establish over time certain reciprocal standards and expectations of conduct. These standards and expectations may be the result of a religious culture whose institutions tutor young people during their socialization to conform to behavior that is understood to be commanded from outside the human world. In such cases, moral behavior is ratified by the theotropic inclinations of human nature, in other words, by the sacred. Presumably, other forms of social authority, fully intrinsic to the community, can accomplish the same ends. Sometimes, usually in fact, both occur simultaneously, bringing about a merger encouraged by the fact that as people mature they learn to appreciate the virtues of civility, integrity, honesty, politeness and other social-guidance systems through which people reassure one another that we are allies-in-common by virtue of sharing a basic interest in the safety, security, prosperity and beauty of our surroundings. Government can encourage and structure the formation of such benign attitudes, but it usually cannot create them de novo.

The point here is that healthy societies create networks of expectations that work thanks to the magic of reciprocity, not because agents of a state constantly enforce them. Reciprocity amounts to sets of implicitly matched or parallel promises of future behavior, and it is the cumulative consequence of making and keeping such promises that is the font of any moral order. (This is something Nietzsche and Hannah Arendt well understood, but that most modern moral philosophers have managed somehow to miss, possibly because the insight  has been tarnished in their eyes by association with Abrahamic theologies.) I don’t steal your backpack and you don’t steal my wallet not just or mainly because of a worry about the police catching us in or after the act, but because we know it’s wrong, and we know at one level or another that if everyone did wrong we’d all be in a total mess, police or no.

Generally speaking, the better a society can maintain social order on its own dime, the less government, and the less coercion, is required to keep civic life clear of Hobbesean nastiness, brutishness and brevity. This observation is the source of anarchism as a political philosophy, just in case anyone is interested. At its essence, the idea is that if people can refine their behaviors sufficiently through some form or other of enlightenment, then, very much pace Hobbes, the need for government can be dispensed with altogether. I confess to a youthful infatuation with anarchism. Some decades ago I read and sometimes thrilled to Bakunin, Krapotkin, Emma Goldmann, and, closer to our own time, the irrepressible Murray Bookchin (1921-2006).

Anarchism is based on a very optimistic view of human nature, or rather of human social nature, which is why it tends to appeal to youth. It was Don Marquis who had his cockroach hero Archie say, to Mehitabel the Cat I think it was, that “an optimist is a guy without much experience.” There is nevertheless a case for such a view beyond youth, and a recent case well made is that of James C. Scott (Two Cheers for Anarchism, Princeton University Press, 2012)—recommended for young and old alike.

That said, I do not know of any large-scale human civilization that has not needed at least some government to establish the basic parameters for justice and economic activity, as well as for collective defense—the first and historically the most compelling and popular reason for government. But clearly, some societies are much better at creating their own internal stabilities than others. Some societies need and want less government than others. To generalize boldly (and perhaps foolishly), high-trust societies needing less government tend to be more homogeneous with respect to language, ethnicity, work profile and religious culture. In theory, anyway, these are enabling but not necessarily limiting factors. Low-trust societies needing more government tend to be more diverse, more urban, more functionally specialized and complex—in a word, ironically enough, more modern.

In a sense, this general observation parallels that of Edmund Burke when he observed that the less discipline a person exerts on himself from within, the more discipline will need be imposed upon him from without. What is true of individuals may also be true of entire societies; as John Adams said: “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” Translation from 18th to 21st century vernacular: A limited government devoted to liberty can only work if society’s own high-functioning moral order keeps expressions of liberty within certain bounds. Or, to put it in far more common, but analytically vaguer, language: Self-government requires civic virtue.

If so, it follows that even a complex and specialized modern society—if it cherishes liberty—should strive for maximum feasible anarchism, even if that ends up being far short of the utopian outcome anarchist theorists have sought. It should strive to be as much of a self-regulating social system as possible, the basis of which is, in my view, the Jeffersonian principle of subsidiarity (to which I also make reference in the book). The best way to reduce both the demand for government and its propensity for coercion is to layer government in ways aligned with the location of problems, building in as best we can protective buffers between them—just as the natural world builds buffers into interdependency to reduce the dangers of systemic contamination and collapse. The fastest, most economical and most sustainable ways to solve most problems are to solve them as close to their points of origin as possible. What neighbors can handle neighbors should handle.  What local communities can handle local communities should handle. What smaller jurisdictions can handle, smaller jurisdictions should handle, and so on. That is how a federal system should work. Any so-called federal system that congenitally drives decisions up and toward the center is a federal system that is malfunctioning, just as any non-governmental organizational form that gratuitously overloads leadership is a form that is inefficient by definition.

Obviously, some standards do cry out for a one-size-fits-all, nationalized (so to speak) solution. In the book I specify a few even as I debunk presumptions to several others. There are also cases where centralized economies of scale work well in organizational life, and they may be important ones. But as many such cases as there once were, they are becoming scarcer at a time when distributed systems are the bellwethers of efficiency.  All the more reason not to clutter the channels with marginal issues better handled at lower levels of governmental or social responsibility.

But again, all this depends on people being able to learn and apply standards of conduct over a wide range of interactive domains, from business to sexual proprieties to recreation to rules of the automotive road. To do that, people have always gleaned the harvest of face-to-face interactions by reading not just words but expressions and body language. The moral ballast of any society starts at the capillary level, when any two people interact. At the other end of the spectrum, therefore, as we consider a nation as a whole, we can say that no society can be more refined than the mean refinement of the individuals and families that compose it.

*   *   *

What also follows from this is a second verity of political life, namely that the political institutions of any society emerge from that society far more than the other way around. The United States is a democracy because its founding society was egalitarian-minded, not the other way around. All of the American Founders and all of their tutors, from Locke to Montesquieu to even the great bad-boy of the time, Rousseau, understood this. The idea that a governmental form could remold or create a society after its desired image earned the derisive label “talismanic” at the hands of William Taylor Coleridge. Yes, sometimes the bully pulpit can make a difference, as the mid-20th century American experience with desegregation shows; but even here, I think, a changing society for the most part led the government, not the other way around.

Social authoritarianism, which exists in both soft and hard, leftist and rightist versions, denies this, or at the least wants to overturn it through the force of a supposed vanguard will. Social authoritarians believe that the state can and should shape society. They want to raise our consciousness. They want to make us unselfish, or pious, or prim, or whatever the virtue d’jour happens to be. They want to squeeze our egos until they bleed compliance. Above all, they want us to conform to explicit standards regardless of any expectation of natural reciprocity. Moral obligations in this kind of command-morality world resemble Kantian categorical imperatives. Whether they want us to worship Karl Marx or the god of John Calvin makes little difference in this respect. Whether they want us to abjure private property or stigmatize tobacco smoking makes little difference, too. They want to create community, whatever its standards may be, by fiat.

Anarchism and statism are thus opposites, even though both have made and may yet again make use of similar radical methods. Anarchists want the least amount of government and the least amount of politics, while statist authoritarians want the most government and the most politics (as long as they control its vicissitudes). The utopianism of anarchism depends on human nature overcoming the distortions and barriers and bad faith accumulated in a history once described by Hegel as “a butcher’s block.” The utopianism of socialist statism depends on changing human nature from a “fallen” state to a pure one. Anarchists see true toleration, as against mere forbearance, as natural; statists do not. If you like the extension of a polarity from Western religion, anarchism is a Hebraic extremism, statism a Pauline one.

All the same, both have in common the idea that for human beings to live fulfilled lives, they must do so together, in communities. The difference between them is this: For anarchists, social trust develops naturally and organically as long as artificial hierarchies can be prevented from perverting and diminishing it; for socialists, social trust has to be imposed from the top down along explicitly devised lines. Both fear too much individualism untethered to the social commons. Both see hubris as the sin that turns the wondrous gift of individual human creativity into that which boomerangs to harm the community that ultimately nurtures us all.

*  *  *

So now, finally, let’s talk about contemporary America, and about Sprint’s new advertising campaign.  Let me continue by quoting a bit from Broken—from the aforementioned tease.

Recent widespread commercial applications of information technology extend broader trends toward the individuation of American society. The gossamer stuff from which the American dream has been spun is all about maximizing individual freedom, and about giving substance to that freedom by maximizing individual efficacy. We have willed our individualist myth into reality, for, as an old professor of mine, Erving Goffman, once put it, “Social life takes up and freezes into itself the conceptions we have of it.” Individuals in cybernetically advanced America today are autonomously powerful as never before, with worlds of information, education, training, products, social exchange and means of expression at their fingertips. But they are also apparently lonelier, less happy and more anxious as the interpersonal glue that ratifies our corner of humanity as a social species dissolves. . . . I suspect a Goethe moment at hand: We have got what we wished for as a youthful civilization, but now that we are older we are not sure what to do with a society made up of Protean individuals, or even why we wanted it in the first place.

Some few of us, anyway, are unsure. Most Americans, and most young Americans in particular, are downright enthusiastic about the I-am-an-island power they have at their disposal these days. They overwhelmingly see the upsides of the new technology insofar as education is concerned, for example, and are mostly oblivious to the tradeoffs.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they have made a conscious choice to care less about community, or friends, or about the natural pleasures of face-to-face relations. (Thank God for sex, or the prospect of it anyway.) We are so early in this new era of mass cybernetic connectivity that no one knows how social-trust friendly or social-trust unfriendly the gadgets will ultimately turn out to be.  Look hard enough and you can see signs pointing both ways. The new stuff doesn’t have to be as isolating and destructive of social capital as television has been, for example, over the past half century. But the fact that Sprint has chosen to mount the individuating, Protean meme and ride it all the way to the bank suggests that a tendency, at least, may already be discernable.

Why should we be concerned about this? Because if the individuating tendencies inherent in the technology are not offset by creative balances that can restock social trust, or social capital, in America, it means that we will drift ever further from a high-trust social equilibrium conducive to liberty to a kind of order that needs ever more government to make it work. We will have to face what David Brooks has called “brutality cascades”, a kind of positional arms race to the bottom that ensues when it becomes difficult to impossible for standards of behavior to form out of interpersonal relationships.

Similarly and closely related, it also may mean that the social authority signals that flow from a naturally evolved social equilibrium will weaken, flattening a bit (or more than a bit) too much the bell curve of moral conformity. If that happens it will erode the constraints against extreme views and behaviors that are in every society the guardrails of civilization itself. One at least has to wonder whether that flattening hasn’t already contributed something to episodes like Buskerud, Norway, Aurora, Colorado and even Newtown, Connecticut.

Don’t misunderstand, please: I love liberty as much as the next American, and perhaps more than most. I am well aware that the concept of individualism that infuses the American ethos is the essence of Enlightenment modernity, and that it explains why both Hobbes and Locke, whatever their differences, were similarly the avatars of modern political life. I can find in my heart little enthusiasm for earlier ages suffused by superstition, smothering conformity, racist and misogynist hierarchies, stultifying fatalism and more besides. But a refined social order is nevertheless the indispensable base for individual fulfillment and dignity, no less than an infant’s willingness to roam and explore is a function of propinquity to parental security.

As Edmund Burke understood so well, tradition is not the mere accretion of habit; it is the wisdom of the ages hard accumulated, often a wisdom difficult to articulate but no less essential to basic civil order for so being. The yawning extent and accelerating trajectory of our individuation, I fear, threatens that order, threatens the natural moral balances in American society and, in their absence, lures many of us, at least, into seeking governmental solutions for everything that may displease us. (Yes, you guessed it: I suspect that American society, as more a creedal or covenantal nationalism than the bloodline forms of European nationalisms, is particularly vulnerable to the depredations of excessive individuation.) Our obsession with self-gratification, self-expression, self-fulfillment—in short with the “imperial me”—and the concomitant rejection of the old virtues (patience, humility, thrift, inter-generational responsibility) as quaint enough for museums but not much good for anything else, has made our country increasingly in need of government and at the same time increasingly ungovernable (other reasons for the latter are explored in the book).

So here I go beyond the book: Yes, globalization and automation have upset some very effective and fairly longstanding arrangements and elements of our political institutional dysfunction have made it much harder to adjust. Corruption is running rampant in a third historical wave of plutocratic assault, and it mixes in myriad ways with the dislocations of our political economy and the frailties of our political culture, making everything worse.

Above all, perhaps, never have plutocrats had it so easy, since countervailing collective action has become more difficult in an age of individuation. Where are the 21st century populists or progressives? Where is the outrage? Do we see so little extra-parliamentary activity because things are simply not so bad (yet)? Or is it rather that the natural social platforms that used to serve as the basis for such political mobilization (from ward politics and community churches to fraternal lodges, quilting bees, Bob Putnam’s bowling leagues and even our colleges) have been hollowed out by our headlong individuation? Sure, Facebook and Instant Messaging can facilitate 20-something bar-mobbing, and Twitter can help crowds gather in Midan al-Tahrir, but today’s American social environment arguably offers up to small groups of the specially interested a door flung more widely open than ever when it comes to looting the  public weal. The logic of collective action has never been less limited.

What I am suggesting is that our crisis of governance, which is reflected but only partly expressed by the mess our political class has made in Washington, is ultimately anchored in a cultural shift that is both a source for and a consequence of revolutionary technological change. Increasing numbers of young and well-educated Americans love the gadgets that help isolate them from one another because they do not wish to be obligated by civilities, do not wish to be constrained by responsibilities to others, do not wish to be limited in any way.  We are witnessing the eternal temptation to self-indulgence raised to both principle and art.

The marketeers at Sprint are clever folks; five will get you ten that they know all this. If we want to be radically free, autonomously powerful, they are eager to pose as our helpers. If we want to escape social gravity, to propel ourselves into orbit around our own egos, we can sign that cell phone contract. And, ironically enough, in all this we are encouraged because everyone else seems to be doing the same thing. This is pseudo-individualism, narcissistic faux non-conformity in a crowd.

Where will this lead, if it keeps up? Well, there’s a very old story, let me suggest, that succinctly speaks to this. It is about a certain tower in a place called Babel. Are you confused?

All I can say is that I liked Sprint’s older, Beatles-inflected advertising slogan better: “All. Together. Now.”

Posted in General | 17 Comments
March 5, 2013

Things Get Worse…

Catching up on some stuff I don’t want to slip by:

The most important news of the past few days is arguably contained in a somewhat-buried article in the New York Times by Robert F. Worth and C.J. Chiver, entitled “Seized Chinese Weapons Raise Concerns on Iran.”  The subtitle gives a hint of one of the reasons this information is so significant:  “Capture of Vessel Off Yemen Alarms Region.”  (As if it isn’t already alarmed enough.)

And well it should be alarmed. As the article makes clear, the Iranians, via the Revolutionary Guard Corps, are accelerating the volume and sophistication of weapons supplies transferred to extent and potential proxies in the region. In the case of Yemen, that’s the Houthi rebellion. In all cases, Iran’s support is to Shi’a or Shi’a offshoot groups fighting Sunni government or groups.  The qualitative escalation is symbolized by the presence of Chinese-manufactured manpads—the QW-1M. These weapons come from a Chinese state-owned company already sanctioned by the U.S. government for illegal arms dealing.

What are Iranian and Chinese officials thinking (and let me note that in neither case can we assume a monolithic government decision system)?

Why, first, are the Iranians doing something that is clearly going to alarm and drive together Sunni countries in the region, and quicken their willingness to cooperate with the United States? Well, they may have assumed they wouldn’t get caught. There have been times in the past when they did not get caught in a timely fashion, and other times when U.S. intelligence and other decision-makers thought that following rather than outing this behavior would bring more long-term benefits.

But they got caught: On January 23 the USS Farragut, a DDG-class destroyer took down the Iranian Jeehan I of the coast Al Ghaydah, a Yemeni town almost directly north of the island of Sucotra in the Gulf of Aden.

Personal aside:  I had the honor a few years ago of shipriding the Farragut into the Atlantic Ocean for a couple of days along with a half dozen other civvies. The ship, which sails out of Mayport at Jacksonville, Florida, was on a counter-terror, counter-piracy training mission in advance of a deployment to the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden. I got to watch simulated action take place, as Captain Phil Sobeck and his officers explained what was going on.  I also got to watch as a cruise missile was fired to its target at Hurlburt Field, near the Gulf Coast all the way on the other side of Florida. And I got to smell a large cloud of cordite during gunnery practice: a-yuck! Congratulations to the men and women of the Farragut, and all those who have been associated with her! The next time I wear my Farragut hat, a gift from Captain Phil, I will do so with special pride.

Note that the Iranians have plotted and implemented this escalation even as they have agreed to talks with the United States and others about their rapidly proceeding nuclear weapons program. Could today’s news possibly suggest that the Iranians have zero intentions of making a deal, and that they are using negotiations only to divide and distract the so-called international community (how hard is that, after all?), so as to buy some quiet time for themselves?

I don’t think that the prospect of getting caught seeding weapons all over the region was enough to stop the Iranians.  That is because there is a chance—a fairly good one, I’d say—that the Iranian leadership believes in the inevitability of war, whether a broad-scale Shi’a-Sunni war in the region, perhaps touched off in Syria and Lebanon between Jabhat al-Musra and Hizballah, or an attack by the United States, or both.  So why wouldn’t they position themselves for it as best they can?

Why the Chinese?  Because they’re willing, they’re discreet—and because they have the right stuff.

Speaking of the Chinese, why are they willing to do this, despite our having read them the riot act several times over this sort of behavior now going on many years?  I can think of two classes of reasons.

First, it’s free.  We complain to them in private diplomatic circles, and we toss a sanction here and there at a specific reprobate company, but we exact no real price.  Every time sanctions against Iran come around, the White House exempts China from them. Not a way to communicate a serious attitude, turning what our diplomatic folks do into what is frequently called in the State Department a “d’marchemallow.” So what’s really to stop the Chinese side from doing the deal?

Second, and much more attention arresting, the Chinese government (or at least the PLA) knows that if there is a fight one day in the Pacific—say one that starts more or less accidentally between China and Japan over some rock in the South China Sea (see the cover story of the current issue of TAI)—it would be very useful to any extended Chinese military campaign if well-armed anti-U.S. groups in the Middle East, taking their cues more or less from Iran, were capable of starting what amounts to a second front. As it is, it seems less than certain that the Obama Administration would back its Japanese ally if it got into a slapping match with China. The prospect of a second, Middle Eastern front coming into play can only make U.S. determination, and credibility, that much easier to doubt. One has to assume that both the Iranian and Chinese sides understand this.

So, important news? You bet.  Good news?  No such luck.

Posted in Iran, Strategy, Yemen | 6 Comments
March 5, 2013

The Minimum Wage Explained

There is a rare gem in Sunday’s New York Times in the business section.  Former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Christina Romer, has provided a balanced honest, accurate and concise summary of the arguments concerning the minimum wage. Given that a significant rise in the minimum wage was one of President Obama’s main initiatives in his recent State of the Union Address, this brief analysis should command a wide audience.

Two qualities of this essay particularly commend it.

First, as Dr. Romer identifies the several economic effects of the minimum wage, she takes care to estimate their relative magnitude. Yes, a rise in the minimum wage will produce unemployment, it will produce higher prices as business businesses pass higher labor costs on to consumers, and it will therefore conduce to inflation—but how much, compared to the redistributional benefits it may bring?

And second, Romer points out that there are other ways, better because more precisely targeted ways, to produce the same benefits as the minimum wage. So she puts the issue in its proper context.

If you want a quick lesson on an important, complex and often politically distorted issue, here’s your chance.

Posted in General | 4 Comments
February 28, 2013

Foreign Policy Funnies: Obama Administration Pivots on Syria

Never let it be said that there is not considerable entertainment value in political life. Watching the First Lady at the Oscar ceremony trying to position herself for post-White House celebrity is pretty funny—to me at least. Gazing upon the affection that the Italian electorate still has for Silvio Berlusconi is more than amusing; it reminds me of the native Washingtonian endearment for Marion Berry, which is downright hilarious. Looming sequestration, I admit, is not so funny, but it certainly is bizarre; maybe John Waters will make a movie about it one day. Compared to all this, recent efforts by new Secretary of State John Kerry really don’t match up, but he’s a newbie in this job, so we should give him some time.

Here’s what I mean. On Monday, aboard Air Force II, Kerry admitted to the traveling press corps that he really didn’t have any new ideas on Syria. On Tuesday, on the ground in London I think, or maybe it was Berlin, he promised new ideas on Syria. And then, lo and behold, the very next day it became evident that U.S. policy toward Syria had changed, in the form of a willingness to provide nonlethal military equipment to the non-Islamist opposition.

You have to admit that this is pretty funny. First, the optic is that on Tuesday Kerry promises new ideas, and within 24 hours American policy changes; this never happens, considering how the interagency process works, and it certainly can’t happen in a White House-centric foreign policy system like the one we have today. Second, these guys have to be trying to pull our legs if they think that nonlethal assistance to the opposition is a remotely new idea. This sort of stuff may not be as entertaining as clowns at the circus, but at least there’s no admission fee to get inside the tent.

Obviously, the decision to shift policy toward the Syrian opposition has been a long time coming. It has little or nothing to do with Kerry’s becoming Secretary of State. That is just as well, because if there were ever a man who lacks credibility when it comes to understanding Syria, John Kerry is that man. He certainly does need new ideas, because his old ones were deeply pathetic.  He also needs new friends in Syria, because his old dear-hearts, Bashar and Asma, are no longer the toast of high society in Paris or Damascus.

* * *

Well, enough banter for now. Let’s get down to the serious issue at hand: Is the new U.S. disposition toward the Syrian opposition a good idea? To answer this question properly, we have to take a step back about two years to get some perspective on where we are, as opposed to where we could’ve been.

When the mayhem started in Syria back in March 2011, the Obama Administration’s attitude was to stay as far away from it as possible. An administration spokesman proclaimed that the United States would supply no equipment of any kind to the opposition, for fear that it would intensify the violence, and that weapons might end up in the hands of terrorists. These were plausible arguments, but they hid the real reason for the Administration’s passivity, which was the fear that any involvement would drag us into a level of commitment the President thought unwise. Here was a case where even leading from behind was judged to be too bold.

Unwise why? Why such passivity? It was over-determined by two central factors. First, by any measure, Syria is hard to do both militarily and politically compared to a place like Libya, which from a military point of view is an island (i.e., every target in the country worth attacking can be attacked from the sea). And second, the prospect of action was far too close to the election to be worth the risk. The more I behold the behavior of this Administration and this President, the more I have to conclude that political concerns outweighed concerns about political and military prudence. But as I say, either way, this was over-determined.

Since it is not possible to have no policy on any subject as telegenic as the Syrian civil war, the Obama Administration dutifully came up with what it claimed was a policy. This policy, so-called, shifted with time, but it basically consisted of a hope that Bashar al-Assad would emerge as the great conciliatory reformer of Syria, and that the medium for parlaying his conciliation into a broad political settlement would consist of the good offices of the Russian government. Thrown into the mix was a robust fantasy that a United Nations mediation effort could do more good than harm. This was such an unearthly delusion that I, at least, got some pretty good belly laughs out of it. All throughout this period we did not need John Kerry to be master of these political-theater-of-the-absurd ceremonies; Hillary Clinton did just fine. But I have to admit that even at the time I did not think the show was all that funny.

Now, I sympathized with the difficulty of the issue from the get-go, but already more than a year ago I was concerned that inaction could well make the situation much worse. In a post titled “The Wisdom of Sheikh Zubar”, I did my best to cobble together a plan that could drive the situation in Syria toward closure without putting American boots on the ground in the process. My concern was that if the situation were left to fester, several bad things would happen.

First, the toxins of Syria’s civil war would spread, to Lebanon, to Jordan, to Iraq, and to Turkey among the Kurds there and in other countries.

Second, as I and others warned, the longer the civil war went on, the more radical-Islamist the opposition would probably become, opening the way for an invitation to al-Qaeda and like-minded groups to thrive just adjacent to three U.S. allies (Turkey, Jordan and Israel).

Third, given the under-institutionalization of the Syrian state under a Ba’athi regime, a protracted civil war would destroy that state to a point that the country could split into pieces. And as we know from the Humpty Dumpty school of historical analysis, a country once split into pieces is hard to put back together again.

Looked at from a cold-blooded strategic perspective rather than the ever popular meliorist-humanitarian one, that latter outcome might not be entirely negative. But at the very least it constituted a form of playing with fire given the first two likely consequences of U.S. passivity.

And so here we are a year or so later, and all of this has come true. Toxins have spread, the opposition has become more Islamist, and the future of Syria as an integral state looks dimmer every day. So much for the idea that boldness should always be relegated to a last resort. If you like a metaphor, this notion is a little like advising a cancer victim to wait until the last minute for surgery.

* * *

It has been said many times before, including by me, but politics is ever the domain of unanticipatable irony. A year ago, for reasons I have just laid out, I believed that an effort, prudent but practical, to bring the civil war in Syria to a close (with Assad and the Ba’ath gone as a result) was the best of all possible alternatives. Now, just as U.S. policy has become more muscular, I’m not so sure.

First of all, while toxins have spread, so have defenses against them. Second, while the opposition has become more Islamist, it has not driven out other factions, and in recent months those factions have gained additional incentive to stop bickering among themselves. Third, some rearrangement of the borders in the region that date from the post-World War I settlement could be a good thing. I am thinking specifically of the establishment of a viable Kurdish state, with its core in the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq—already an independent entity in all but the formalities. Having such a basically pro-Western, non-Arab entity in that region might have its advantages (although I do not for a minute underestimate the amount of broken crockery it might take to bring such an entity into being).

And there is even a fourth reason why a continuation of the fighting, at least for a while, might bring benefits. The Islamist core of the Syrian opposition is called Jabhat al-Nusra, and it is ultra-radical Sunni in inspiration, along the lines of al-Qaeda. Rising rapidly to contend against it is from the west, staging now in Lebanon, is what is becoming a wing of the Iranian military in Syria, namely an expeditionary arm of Hizballah—and it is ultra-radical Shi’a in inspiration. To put it in an admittedly somewhat glib historical analogy, we are likely about to witness a replay of the Battle of Karbala. (Despite the fact that this battle took place in October 680, any sentient adult American who doesn’t know what it is, now more than a decade after September 11, 2001, ought to be ashamed of himself.)

Let me try to put this delicately, although it’s not easy. We have before us the prospect that a large number of men (and even some women) who thoroughly hate the United States of America and all it stands for are getting ready to slice each other from dimple to duodenum. Most of these guys are not the least afraid of fighting, and they are by any realistic measure we’re familiar with not afraid of dying. So why not let them? There have been many fights in history in which, for all practical purposes, both sides have lost. With any luck at all, and with perhaps a few dirty tricks added in for insurance, this could be one of them. I know this will sound harsh to some, but consider it this way: We have stood aside for two years with our thumbs up our you-know-what while more than 70,000 mostly innocent people have been killed; so why not stand aside for a little longer so that some mostly hateful and dangerous people can get killed?

* * *

In any event, the new U.S. policy of providing nonlethal assistance to the Syrian opposition may be less than meets the eye for another reason. What if we have already been complicit, sub rosa, in facilitating the movement of lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition? Now of course I would not know anything about this, but it at least looks like the Saudi government has purchased old-stock Yugoslav weapons for the Syrian opposition, and colluded with the Jordanian government to transport them from Croatia into Syria. Is it possible that an arrangement of this sort involving three countries with which the United States has quite close relationships—Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Croatia—could go forward without our knowledge and assent, if not our full-throated encouragement? (Croatian officials have denied selling weapons to anyone, but to all appearances they are the worst liars I have ever seen. This just gets funnier by the moment, doesn’t it?)

It won’t be long now, I suspect, before we can enjoy the next episode of the Kerry-Obama Syria policy show. My ribcage already aches from laughing, but I look forward to it all the same.

Posted in Syria | 9 Comments