August 16, 2011

Fannie, Freddie and the House of Cards

Editor’s Note: On August 16, the Washington Post reported that the Obama Administration is considering proposals that would retain a major role for the Federal government in the nation’s mortgage market.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (collectively the two largest “GSEs”, or government-sponsored enterprises) have engaged in a broad range of residential mortgage activities for many years.1 The economic disaster of recent times has drawn considerable attention to Freddie and Fannie, which is not surprising considering the role that the mortgage sector of the U.S. banking system played in that debacle. Together the two institutions hold or pool about $5 trillion worth of mortgages, and so sketchy were their operations that in September 2008 the U.S. government had to bail them out and place them in conservatorship to keep the entire mortgage market from imploding. While the U.S. government has by now been made whole by TARP-assisted banks, it is not clear whether the billions of dollars provided to keep Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac afloat will ever be returned to the U.S. Treasury.

It has not been easy for even well-educated observers to understand the role that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have played in our recent economic distress, and how to make sure they never become part of such problems again. By almost any measure, the operation of these GSEs is complex, just as the system in which it operates is fully comprehensible only to those who are experts in knowledge of its inner workings. That is why proposals to reform Freddie and Fannie seem so difficult to construct, explain and implement. Clearly, the Congress has not made much progress in the effort so far.

The Obama Administration provided some clarity by offering policy options in a position paper released in February 2011, Reforming America’s Housing Finance Market: A Report to Congress (the “White House Report”). On August 16, the Washington Post carried a front-page article by Zachary A. Goldfarb that reviewed Obama Administration efforts, revealing that, while the Administration’s economic wizards have not yet decided what plan to put before the President, they are leaning toward a larger role for the Federal government than had been suggested by the February White House Report. According to the article, the approach being pursued by the Administration “could even preserve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac . . . although under different names and with significant new constraints.”

Names matter, but the character of those constraints matter a great deal more. As the Washington Post article notes, conservatives in general, as well as many economists, believe that any significant government role in the mortgage market is distortionary and likely to contribute to further financial dislocation. It also notes that the Administration has not yet decided whether to pursue this policy development to its final course before the 2012 presidential election, suggesting that it is well aware of the political volatility of the issue.

As detailed as this Washington Post account is, it cannot begin to describe the almost Byzantine complexity of Federal intervention in the housing market. The possibility of coherent thought about the reform of our mortgage GSEs requires one to understand why Fannie and Freddy were established in the first place, how their functions have changed since then, and why they changed. It is not even obvious that we still need these institutions at all. Perhaps whatever useful functions Freddie and Fannie perform could be handled more effectively by other government institutions. If we want effective new policies, we must not shirk from the task of governmental design and redesign. The Administration needs to be bold. Its trajectory so far, unfortunately, suggests retreat.

A Pocket History

Around the time of the Great Depression, mortgages on residential properties were typically short-term loans, with little if any principal paid until maturity. The flaw in this approach to mortgage finance became evident when property values declined precipitously in the 1930s. For many, home loans that were due and payable at maturity could not be refinanced because the amount of mortgage debt exceeded the value of the property. The Great Depression confirmed that Americans needed a more stable system of home mortgage finance.

The New Deal ushered in the first major effort by the Federal government to stabilize mortgage lending through Federal support and regulation. The doyens of the New Deal created two parallel structures that changed the way that residential loans were originated in the United States. For decades, both structures encouraged the financing of home loans without cost to the American taxpayer.

In the first of these new structures, the Federal government became the insurer of home loans. The Federal agency offering the insurance was the Federal Housing Administration, or the FHA, an acronym used to this day despite the fact that the functions of the FHA have been absorbed by the cabinet-level Department of Housing and Urban Development. The FHA, created in 1934, provided insurance to a lender in the event of mortgage default by the borrower. FHA charged a premium for its mortgage insurance that was paid by the lender but borne by the borrower. Loans eligible for insurance met statutory standards designed to keep default risk low.

Second, the Federal government enabled a special type of depository institution—most often known as a thrift or savings-and-loan (S&L) association—to become primarily engaged in the origination of home loans. Through the oversight of various regulatory agencies over the years, the Federal government offered member-paid deposit insurance and reserve credit to participating depository institutions. The S&Ls were willing to pay for this insurance because it allowed them to attract deposits as a secure funding source for home mortgage lending.

During this simpler era of mortgage finance, the Federal government was also instrumental in regulating the interest-rate environment for mortgage lending. Until 1983, the FHA had the authority to set a maximum interest rate for insured mortgages. For approximately the same period, Federal bank regulators effectively controlled a thrift’s cost of funds by regulating the interest rate paid for insured deposits.

The FHA was technically a government-owned insurance company but, by hitting the ground running at the start of the New Deal, it assumed a key standard-setting role in home mortgage lending generally. The FHA developed or implemented borrower underwriting requirements and minimum property standards. It even licensed participating lenders. As an insurer, the FHA collected a vast amount of default and claims experience for underwriting loans that provided insight for future Federal housing initiatives. FHA employees developed the reputation of being hard-nosed actuaries who started the practice of redlining (that is, a blanket denial of credit to anyone located within a struggling, typically minority, geographic location) as a form of underwriting.

Unlike FHA mortgage insurance, which prescribed the type of mortgages that could be insured under the National Housing Act, Federal deposit insurance attached to lender liabilities rather than to those of borrowers. It attached, for example, to certificates of deposit. This was useful because Federal deposit insurance gave thrifts an easy way to attract funds for mortgage lending. Thrift regulators were responsible for the safety and soundness of thrifts, but did not design mortgage lending programs. As a result, thrifts had more flexibility in loan origination than FHA lenders. Thrift officers tended to look and act less like actuaries and more like Jimmy Stewart’s George Bailey character from It’s a Wonderful Life.

Whatever the fragilities of this system, it worked for decades. Compared to the situation before the New Deal, the new Federal role in the mortgage market helped it stabilize and expand. It gave people more confidence in the system, and it is no exaggeration to say that this confidence enabled the housing expansion of the American middle class. Nevertheless, a mid-life legislative makeover for FHA triggered a kind of role reversal for FHA and the thrifts. With the passage of urban renewal legislation in 1949, Congress began to consider how FHA insurance could be used to rejuvenate declining urban areas. On one side, Congress expanded FHA mortgage insurance to include a number of higher-risk initiatives. Congress also enacted programs that for the first time combined FHA insurance with mortgage subsidies for the poor. Many of the new programs required Federal appropriations for continued operations, a radical departure from past years when no taxpayer money whatsoever was involved in the Federal role. As a result of these changes, even the FHA’s profitable insurance programs became less popular due to standard mortgage limits that were often too low to finance entry to a suburban development. By the late 1960s, FHA typically did not cater to the financing of suburban locations and higher income borrowers. Thrifts did.

From the start of the New Deal, most active FHA lenders needed to find a source of funds to originate FHA loans because they were not portfolio lenders; in other words, they did not use their own capital to make loans. The FHA lender was a generally mortgage bank—a company, often with limited capital, that needed to find funds from another institution (such as a bank or insurance company) to make loans. Very early in the life of the FHA, it was clear that FHA lending could be increased if a secondary mortgage facility for the purchase of FHA loans was always available. A secondary market reduces risks for lenders by enlarging the reservoir of money from which the loans flow. (Thrifts, on the other hand, did not need a secondary mortgage market, at least initially, because funds from insured deposits could be aggregated in sufficient volume to fund home loans.)

The congressional response to FHA’s need for a secondary mortgage market was Fannie Mae. Starting its life in 1938 as a Federal agency, Fannie Mae provided a secondary mortgage market for FHA-insured loans by buying loans from FHA lenders. As the Federal government expanded into new mortgage insurance or guarantee programs, Fannie Mae expanded its secondary mortgage market activity in lockstep. For thirty years, Fannie Mae performed the limited but important function of buying and selling Federally insured or guaranteed loans. The FHA and the other Federal agencies that were to assume a role in housing (for example, the Veterans Administration) were responsible for the heavy lifting in setting policy for program eligibility, operations and claims. Fannie Mae, in contrast, conducted purchases and sales of these Federally insured and guaranteed mortgages. In response to market conditions, Fannie Mae served as mortgage owner for periods of time. With a rapid increase in agency mortgage volume after World War II, the funding needs of Fannie Mae continued to increase. Federal funding was the exclusive financing source of Fannie Mae until 1954, when lenders selling mortgages to Fannie Mae were required to buy non-voting common stock in Fannie Mae. This new private source of revenue did not stop Fannie Mae’s need for an ever-larger piece of Uncle Sam’s budgetary pie, however, as its secondary mortgage operations grew.

With the Vietnam War placing increasing demands on the Federal budget, President Johnson decided that Fannie Mae could be converted to a private company as a means to eliminate Fannie Mae’s reliance on Federal funding for operations. This shift was achieved through the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968 (hereafter the “1968 Act”), which re-engineered Fannie Mae as a Federally chartered corporation. No longer within the Federal government, Fannie Mae became a corporation trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The 1968 Act authorized Fannie Mae to maintain a secondary mortgage market for Federally insured or guaranteed loans with a Federal backstop.

The 1968 Act concurrently provided a Federal charter for another corporation, the Government National Mortgage Association (“Ginnie Mae”), located within HUD. Ginnie Mae continued certain special assistance functions previously performed by Fannie Mae, such as the purchase of below market interest rate FHA multifamily loans that enabled apartment borrowers to offer below market rents to low- and moderate-income tenants. It also became responsible for the development of a program for the guarantee of mortgage-backed securities backed in turn by newly originated FHA/VA loans.

With the spin-off of Fannie Mae from direct Federal control and the creation of Ginnie Mae for FHA/VA securitization, thrifts began to sense the need to change their status as portfolio lenders, and they began to clamor for their own secondary mortgage market facility. Congress responded in 1970 with the creation of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (“Freddie Mac”).

The mortgage-backed securities program developed by Ginnie Mae served as a precedent for Freddie Mac’s own program design as it set up shop, and it also became a structural model for the mortgage-backed securities program created by Fannie Mae in the 1980s. Because the FHA had spent decades focused on underwriting and insurance, Ginnie Mae was able to limit its function to securitization. But both Federal agencies had certain similarities. Ginnie Mae as guarantor, like FHA as insurer, did not fund loans. Both the FHA and Ginnie Mae instead provided a Federal backstop for them. The difference between the two resided in the identity of the recipient of the Federal backstop: the FHA insured licensed lenders, nearly always an institutional entity, while Ginnie Mae guaranteed timely payment to any registered certificate holder of its mortgage-backed securities, including individual investors.

In designing a mortgage-backed securities guarantee program, Ginnie Mae made the lender responsible for loan origination and creation of the mortgage-backed securities pool. Ginnie Mae charged a fee for its guarantee, deducted from interest paid by the lender. Ginnie Mae’s guarantee program operated consistently in the black so long as FHA/VA benefits accrued to the lender in the event of loan default, and the lender otherwise complied with program requirements concerning remittance of claim proceeds and so forth. Like the FHA and VA, Ginnie Mae licensed and regulated participating lenders. By attaching the full faith and credit guarantee of the United States Treasury to mortgage-backed securities, Ginnie Mae became the superior placement source for newly originated FHA/VA loans. As a practical matter, the full faith and credit guarantee of Ginnie Mae reduced the role of Fannie Mae as a secondary mortgage facility for FHA/VA loans.

With Ginnie Mae gaining significant market share as an outplacement source for FHA/VA loan originations, Congress began to expand the charter of Fannie Mae. In time, both GSEs received Congressional authority to purchase the same loan menu, although their respective customer bases differed due to historical accident. Fannie Mae’s early customer base tended to be non-depository institutions such as mortgage banks; Freddie Mac’s original customer base was the thrift industry. The two jointly developed a standardized market for conventional loans in the 1970s, similar to the function performed by the FHA in the 1930s for FHA insured loans.

What was slower to change, at least for Fannie Mae as the older GSE, was its capital structure. During its early years as a publicly owned company, Fannie Mae maintained an asset and capital structure closely resembling that of a thrift. Not only were its key assets long-term mortgages, but purchase of these long-term holdings were financed using capital plus short-term debt. In other words, Fannie Mae borrowed short to invest long, and the cumulative difference between the interest rates drove profitability. Thrifts operated under the same financing mismatch for decades, but they did so in a largely regulated environment. Fannie Mae borrowed in an unregulated environment. By the early 1980s, Fannie Mae was borrowing short-term at double-digit interest rates to finance a portfolio of long-term loans at single-digit interest rates. You don’t have to be a banker to see where a situation like that will eventually lead. Fannie Mae avoided a collision course with insolvency by adopting a mortgage-backed security approach similar in structure to the Ginnie Mae program. This enabled it to shift interest rate risk to the security holder because it was not “long” the investment. Fannie Mae simply guaranteed payment under the mortgage-backed security, thus providing a credit back-stop for the security holder should the lender of any pooled mortgage in default fail to make the appropriate advances of principal and interest to the security holder. Once Fannie Mae re-tooled itself from portfolio lender to guarantor in the 1980s, it joined Freddie Mac in finding that rising interest rates could provide a business opportunity.

As high interest rates became part of the financial landscape, many millions of dollars worth of seasoned, low-interest rate loans were stuck in the portfolios of thrifts and other lenders. Each GSE offered a “guarantor” or “swap” program for seasoned loans in response, allowing lenders to swap non-liquid seasoned loans for liquid GSE-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities. Loans eligible for guarantee included seasoned FHA/VA loans, which were traditionally not eligible for guarantee by Ginnie Mae. The GSE swap programs became a popular tool for senior management or investment bankers retained by a portfolio lender to provide exit strategies for large blocks of underwater loans. For each GSE, its swap program provided a large volume of profitable transactional activity; in other words, they made a ton of money off of fees.

With the approach of the 1990s, the increased profitability of the GSEs did not go unnoticed. Fannie Mae topped the list of stock picks among fund managers, including Fidelity Magellan Fund’s Peter Lynch. The increasing depth and sophistication of the financial markets enabled the GSEs to offer an array of mortgage programs to lenders. While the GSEs increasingly offered the same mortgage product line to the same seller/servicers, each had a different regulator. Until 1989, HUD had oversight of Fannie Mae while the Federal Home Loan Bank System maintained responsibility for Freddie Mac.

As the 1980s came to a close, a consensus emerged that these inconsistent regulatory structures made no sense for entities that now performed nearly identical functions. Originally, the structure made sense, but “facts on the ground” that occurred during the 1980s required Congress to revisit the legislation, which it did. At the time, another factor impelled regulatory change of the GSEs: the liquidation of massive numbers of insolvent thrifts. The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 and the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 expanded permitted investments for thrifts. Federally guaranteed certificates of deposit, made attractive to the public under the Acts by allowing thrifts to pay market interest rates and offer increased Federal insurance coverage due to a higher ceiling, funded this high-risk investment spree. What Congress failed to require and the then-thrift regulatory agency, the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, failed to put in place was more thrift capital to provide a cushion for the default of higher risk loans and investments. The legislative and regulatory action–and inaction–of the early 1980s had the effect of giving the already capital-challenged thrift industry more rope to tighten its insolvency noose. By the time Congress responded to the thrift crisis, hundreds of thrifts that were part of Freddie Mac’s customer base were insolvent. The rationale for maintaining Freddie Mac as a captive secondary-market institution for the thrift industry began to disappear as the thrift industry itself shrank.

Enacted with the 1989 thrift clean-up legislation was a temporary regulatory structure for the GSEs, pending further study at the Federal level. At the time, as noted, few questioned the continued need for the GSEs, or for so many of them doing essentially the same thing. Both Freddie and Fannie were at their high point in profitability and Congressional admiration. By comparison, the two original New Deal creations that supported mortgage finance—the FHA and the thrifts—played a more diminished role.

By the time the urge to reform the GSE regulatory structure produced a new approach, it did so by concentrating authority in HUD. The Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 (the “1992 Act”) created an independent office within HUD called the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight with exclusive authority over the financial soundness of the GSEs. In other administrative areas, HUD held general regulatory authority.

Key to HUD’s oversight as “mission regulator” of the GSEs was a detailed set of housing affordability goals requiring the GSEs to lend or purchase specified loan types. HUD determined loan eligibility based on an underserved location or a moderate, low or very low-income borrower. While the GSE housing affordability goals bore some resemblance to old Community Reinvestment Act requirements for depository institutions, in the 1960s the FHA provided subsidies or insurance for borrowers of comparable income or in similar locations. The new arrangement provided no Federal money for the purpose. Congress essentially replaced appropriations to the FHA with housing goals for GSEs as a way to keep the lid on Federal spending for housing programs. In so doing it expected to condition the market by fiat rather than by acting with in. Predictably, the effort had perverse effects.

As a quid pro quo for compliance with the housing affordability goals of the 1992 Act, the GSEs received three benefits. First, the GSEs gained exemption from all state and local taxes except property taxes. Second, they gained exemption from Federal and state securities registration requirements. Third, they gained conditional access to a line of credit from the U.S. Treasury. These benefits helped the GSEs, but once the 1992 Act was firmly in place, Wall Street stopped viewing the GSEs as enablers to bank activity as they had during the swap era of the 1980s. Wall Street now considered the GSEs to be a form of unfair competition, particularly the lower cost of GSE funds based on their implicit Federal guarantee—amounting to something like $2 billion savings per year according to Congressional Budget Office and Treasury Department estimates. Around the same time, the GSEs lost their monopoly on knowledge about mortgage markets. Wall Street had assumed a leading role in the purchase of mortgage assets from Federal thrift liquidators in the early 1990s, developing expertise comparable to the GSEs for a large number of markets.

Despite Wall Street’s growing interest and expertise in the mortgage market, the GSEs could largely determine whether Wall Street would have a bidding opportunity in the first instance for certain specialized types of mortgage origination. The GSE could do this by skewing offer terms to seller/servicers. If a GSE wanted to buy certain mortgages to the exclusion of Wall Street, it could offer more favorable purchase terms given the lower cost of GSE funds. If the GSE did not want to hold a mortgage position, it could skew its offer terms to a guarantee of mortgage-backed securities. Only for guaranteed securities did Wall Street typically have an opportunity to bid. As a result of this practice, some specialized origination types could disappear from the secondary mortgage market for years if the GSE wanted to accumulate a large position in them. What drove the decision by the GSE to purchase or guarantee certain specialized product lines was its own capital limitations or profitability considerations.

The lack of a level playing field between Wall Street and the GSEs was also evident in the secondary market, where each GSE competed against broker-dealers and other institutional investors for its own guaranteed mortgage-backed securities. As the guarantor, the GSE had more information about the underlying loans than it typically made publicly available to competitors. And due to the implicit Federal guarantee of the GSE, the borrowing costs of the GSE to buy the securities were lower than comparable costs for competitors. An institutional investor simply couldn’t compete with the GSE in profitability in executing an identical trade. The GSE had superior information and a lower cost of funds.

Even smaller loan originators began to view the GSEs suspiciously around this time, as GSE business plans for growth began to invade the turf of direct mortgage lending. Like a drug company that discovers direct consumer advertising to patients, Fannie Mae extensively advertised itself as “America’s Housing Partner” in the 1990s; and even a post-conservatorship Freddie Mae continues to assure a jaded American public that “We Make Home Possible.”

As the 1990s progressed, private lenders stopped thinking of GSEs as useful instruments to develop new mortgage products. Instead, they worried that the GSEs would find ways to enter a developing mortgage market so as to eliminate private sector competition and profitability. The GSEs had turned from partners to predators, forcing private lenders to seek opportunity by increased the volume of niche products outside of the plain vanilla GSE and the relatively safe FHA/VA loan menu. The initial product of entry for many private residential mortgage programs was the “jumbo mortgage”—a mortgage with a loan amount in excess of conventional loan limits. The Federal government annually computed conventional loan limits based on median home prices. Maximum loan limits for FHA loans traditionally were lower than conventional loan limits, but the FHA required only a modest down payment. Congress allowed the GSEs to offer higher loan limits for conventional financing. In setting underwriting standards for most conventional loan types, the GSEs required a down payment higher than the FHA and, depending upon the amount of the down payment, private mortgage insurance. But as the 1990s evolved into the Age of the McMansion, living large translated into a jumbo mortgage. Private lenders lined up to offer them.

The whole jumbo business was risky enough, but what remains insufficiently understood is that the idea of a subprime mortgage also came about as a result of private lenders’ desperation at the invasion of their business turf by the GSEs. Subprime loans began in the mid-1990s as a way for borrowers with impaired credit—even those who could not qualify for FHA financing—to become homeowners. Subprime started as a small specialty, not restricted by FHA mortgage limits, but requiring close attention by loan servicers. Few realize that, at least during the 1990s, subprime was on the path of providing housing for poor credit risks without a run-up in default rates. At the time, lenders followed strict servicing procedures for this new higher-risk mortgage product. Risks were controlled by professional discipline. But after a promising start-up, the profitability of subprime attracted many new lenders without regard for servicing discipline. As a mainstream mortgage product, subprime became an unmitigated disaster for borrowers, lenders and investors, as everybody realized after the fact.

By the time the Millennium arrived, an even more basic change had emerged for many of the newer private label residential mortgage products. The down-payment requirement, a staple of mortgage loan underwriting, began to disappear.

Until this point, little or no down payment was possible only under FHA, VA or other government programs designed to expand housing affordability. Default rates under these programs were inevitably higher due to relaxed down-payment requirements, but those who were able to achieve homeownership without default, in the eyes of the programs’ sponsors, made the tradeoff worthwhile. At least in the FHA experience, the total elimination of even a small down-payment by the borrower tripled the risk of default. Under the 1968 Act, FHA insured approximately 400,000 mortgages that loosened the down-payment requirement for the low-income. Even substantial interest subsidies paid directly to the lender on behalf of the borrower could not prevent higher default rates. As the urban laboratory for then-HUD Secretary George Romney, Detroit became an especially noteworthy casualty of the FHA’s new insurance program for the low-income, with about a third of all of its residential property estimated to have been acquired by HUD in the early 1970s.

Around the same time that private label mortgage programs started to eliminate down-payments, the FHA involuntarily repeated its disastrous claim experience for loans without a down-payment. Non-profit organizations attempting to help the low-income become homeowners started combining FHA insurance with a special “gift” down payment from the seller to the buyer through the non-profit as intermediary. In essence, they hijacked the FHA without its permission. FHA claim statistics revealed high default rates for loans originated through non-profit gift down payment programs. The FHA attempted to stop the use of FHA insurance with non-profit gift down payment programs in court, but failed. It was not until the passage of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (the “2008 Act”) that Congress forbade the practice.

More trouble was brewing elsewhere, however. For example, lender initiatives that began in the 1990s to simplify loan underwriting for borrowers morphed into “no underwriting” programs only a few years later for certain new mortgage types. “Alt A” loans became the best example of this. These private label mortgage products chipped away at the established underwriting standards developed by the FHA and the GSEs. At the same time, a steady decline in interest rates for most of the past decade triggered a grab for yield by mortgage investors with little regard for the increased credit risk. As secondary mortgage markets became more sophisticated, in theory—and certainly more willing to assume higher levels of credit risk—the GSEs were no longer a vital intermediary. Lenders could now pool high-risk loans into private label residential mortgage-backed securities for sale in the secondary mortgage market. They did not need the GSEs. The marketability of these pools to yield-hungry bond buyers, not underwriting fundamentals, ended up driving loan originations.

The reckless lending allowed by the new private residential mortgage programs reduced mortgage origination activity by the GSEs and FHA/VA lenders. By 2005, Ginnie Mae and the GSEs issued or guaranteed, in the aggregate, less than half of all mortgage-backed securities. FHA origination activity, subject to a myriad of rules and red tape long associated with FHA, slipped into the single digits.

Many are of the view that the GSEs did not initiate directly the high-risk mortgage lending practices that were at the source of the credit crisis other than activity required by HUD to meet GSE “housing goals.” Lenders and other intermediaries feeding the private mortgage label programs did that, fueled by a secondary mortgage market willing to accept higher risk mortgage product if accompanied by a seductive agency rating. But if one peels the onion a little deeper, it is clear that this risky behavior was stimulated in the first place by the way the GSEs used their advantages to outflank and out-complete the private label residential mortgage sector. They are the ones whose avaricious business practices drove private lenders to increasingly riskier decisions.

Eventually, however, the proverbial chickens came home to roost. As the private label lenders tried to outflank the GSEs through riskier ventures, the GSEs tried to elbow their way into this riskier action as well. Like any publicly traded company, the GSEs needed to maintain growth in earnings. They are the ones who started buying high-risk loans such as Alt A, and started re-guaranteeing little understood private label mortgage-backed securities backed by high-risk loans (a decision with even more disastrous consequences). This is what did them in financially. Though the GSEs were late to purchase and guarantee higher risk mortgage products, they had a lower capital cushion compared to a commercial bank or even an investment bank. They relied on debt to finance their extensive mortgage activities, and the aggregate amount of GSE debt came to exceed the amount of outstanding Treasury debt as the year 2000 approached.

Given the line of credit to the U.S. Treasury available to the GSEs under the 1992 Act, one might think that Congress watched these developments with some anxiety, to rein in such high-wire acts. Congress did no such thing. As the horse left the barn, Congress passed the 2008 Act to strengthen the safety and soundness of GSE regulation and establish procedures for GSE conservatorship. The latter occurred just in the nick of time. Only a few months later, the GSEs were put into conservatorship by the Federal government.

The private label residential mortgage-backed securities market was in tatters as a result of the 2008 credit crisis. By late 2009, the Treasury lifted all dollar limits on its credit line to the GSEs. The FHA, now enabled with temporary but higher mortgage insurance limits, and the GSEs, despite behavior that had largely instigated the whole mess in the first place, became the source once again for most loan originations in the United States. If this sounds unfair, that’s because it is.

The insolvency of the GSEs shows eerie similarities to the thrift insolvencies that occurred almost twenty years earlier. Like the thrifts then, the GSEs operated with low capital, a continued drive to maintain profit growth, and an unlimited borrowing capacity due to a Federal backstop. The key difference between GSEs and the thrifts, perhaps, was the international implication that trumped all legalities governing the GSEs. The shutdown of a thrift was largely a domestic affair, with detailed regulations in place governing the payment of Federally insured deposits. The implicit Federal guarantee of the GSEs, as a marketing tool for the international placement of GSE debt, gave the Treasury no practical option but to backstop GSE debt to avoid an international debt crisis. Of little surprise, the Treasury allowed only GSE debt obligations to receive this favored treatment. The Treasury credit line was not available to pay common or preferred stock dividends of the GSEs. Holders of GSE common or preferred stock were largely wiped out once the GSEs were placed in conservatorship.

Lessons

It is clear that the GSEs at one time engaged in activities similar to those performed by various Federal agencies. They developed underwriting standards for conventional loans similar to the standard-setting function performed by the FHA in an earlier generation. Fannie Mae, for its first thirty years, bought FHA insured mortgages. And the GSEs developed mortgage-backed programs for conventional loans and seasoned FHA/VA loans, after Ginnie Mae—an agency within the Federal government—developed a mortgage-backed securities program for newly originated FHA/VA loans that continues to this day. While the GSEs designed mortgage-backed securities programs responsive to the needs of seller/servicers, the real source of success for GSE-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (and GSE mortgage purchases, for that matter) was an implicit Federal guarantee that became explicit under duress. Put a little differently, the GSEs did good things. For a time they helped allocate capital more efficiently than markets alone were able to do, and they performed social equity functions that the national ethos, as expressed through the Executive and Legislative branches of government, deemed more important than what markets by themselves would do.

But whenever government distorts markets, for whatever purposes, it skews incentive structures in ways that have unpredictable outcomes. When that skewing coincides with significant changes in the context of market activity—as with globalized finance as it developed in the past quarter century—one compounds uncertainties to the point where one toys with systemic risk. We have paid the price; the question now is what to do about Freddie and Fanny in circumstances dramatically different from those that existed at their creation.

This closer one looks at the history of Federal support for residential mortgage lending the more one sees that the GSEs and various Federal agencies that supposedly regulated them have performed overlapping functions over the years. The only unique feature of each GSE was its off-budget status. But removing an activity from the Federal budget only served to hide how large, and how expensive, it had become when profits were privatized and losses socialized.

Nevertheless, even as the credit crisis was persisting and the GSEs were placed into conservatorship, Congress transformed the FHA from a declining mortgage insurance program to the center of mortgage lending in the United States simply by increasing the loan limits for FHA insured mortgages. Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities served as the primary placement source for such increased lending. (Ginnie Mae is on budget, and it has typically run in the black.) Of course, GSE activities are all off budget and as a de facto intervention into the market will predictably retard and distort the recovery of the private mortgage sector.

Given these realities, GSE housing programs considered worthy of Federal support should be moved back on to the Federal budget. Moreover, GSE activity should continue only as a Federal insurance or guarantee program eligible for placement through Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities. GSE mortgage assets that do not fall within these parameters should be sold off through an orderly liquidation process not different in essence from the thrift liquidations of the early 1990s. The GSEs need to stay in their lanes and not compete with the private mortgage sector using their government-associated advantages to tilt the playing field to their own advantage. If we do not ensure this line of separation, then we can expect the same destructive race toward the risky to start up all over again in due course. Recent proposals to incrementally reduce the maximum mortgage amounts eligible for GSE securitization or purchase (that is, the “conforming limits”) are a sound way to gradually scale back GSE origination activity given current fragile housing markets.

What Congress hates about the FHA, the VA and similar Federal housing programs is the line item in the Federal budget needed to cover program losses or subsidies. But what the history of the GSEs makes clear is that the implicit Federal guarantee of an off-balance sheet entity is not in the long run a cheaper or more efficient way to support mortgage finance. It is a far, far more costly method.

Mary Martell, a lawyer in Washington, DC, has worked in the housing finance industry for more than three decades.


1Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not, however, the only GSEs. The first was the Farm Credit System created in 1916; the most recent is Sallie Mae, created in 1972 to deal with the financing of higher education. Fanny and Freddie are, nonetheless, by far the largest of the GSEs in terms of dollar volume.

Posted in Economics, Politics | 2 Comments
August 9, 2011

Why Gene Patents Are Bad for Patients and Science

“The information contained in our shared [genome] is so fundamental, and requires so much further research to understand its utility, that patenting it at the earliest stage is like putting up a whole lot of unnecessary toll booths on the road to discovery”, said National Institutes of Health Director and former head of the Human Genome Project Francis Collins in his 2010 book The Language of Life: DNA and the Revolution in Personalized Medicine.

Unfortunately such toll booths were just given the go-ahead by a Federal appeals court. In a 2-1 decision issued on July 29, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit overruled a lower court’s decision in Association for Molecular Pathology et al. v. U.S. Patent and Trademark Office et al. holding that private companies and researchers could in fact patent genes and DNA sequences. If not overturned by the Supreme Court, this decision could have harmful impacts on patient health and could limit future genomic and scientific discoveries.

To get a better sense of what this case means and where it is going, we must take a step back and look at the history of gene patenting and the case against it. These patents harm patients and researchers, and they go against years of legal precedent holding that one cannot patent a “fact of nature.”

A Brief History of Gene Patents
Most people are shocked to learn that more than 20 percent of the human genome is patented.1 Corporations and researchers own patents on genes that correlate diseases such as breast cancer, Alzheimer’s and Huntington’s disease, among others. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office started granting patents on human genes in the 1980s and has since granted more than 4,300 of them.

In May 2009, the American Civil Liberties Union filed a lawsuit against Myriad Genetics, which owned genes (BRCA1 and BRCA2) that correlate with increased risk for breast cancer and ovarian cancer. The ACLU named the Patent Office as a defendant, too, since it had granted these patents. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of researchers, genetic counselors, women patients, cancer survivors, breast cancer and women’s health groups, and scientific associations representing 150,000 geneticists, pathologists and laboratory professionals.

The plaintiffs claimed that genes are “facts of nature” and are therefore not patentable. Additionally, they argued that Myriad’s patents limited patients’ access to potentially life-saving genetic diagnostic tests and prevented researchers from looking at those genes to help their patients or to develop more effective and affordable tests.

The defendants argued that patents are necessary to protect the time and money invested in identifying disease-gene correlations. Myriad Genetics also claimed that its patents are on “isolated” genes and DNA sequences, and this act of isolating a gene from the genome is an inventive step and worthy of a patent. These patents, the industry claims, are necessary to bring expensive tests and products to market and improve patient health.

In March 2010, a Federal judge agreed with the ACLU and decided that DNA sequences are “facts of nature” and are therefore no more patentable than “isolated” gold from a mine or isolating a natural element. Myriad Genetics quickly appealed the decision.

Do Gene Patents Harm Patients and Innovation?
Contrary to industry claims that gene patents are necessary to bring tests and products to market, such patents are actually detrimental to patient health and researcher access to genetic information. Gene patent holders often use their exclusive control to charge excessive fees for diagnostic testing and to prevent other researchers from utilizing specific genes for research.2

Myriad Genetics, for example, charges up to $4,000 for its breast cancer diagnostic test, a price too steep for many patients and health insurance providers. If allowed, labs could run the same genetic test for only a few hundred dollars.3 Myriad also sent cease-and-desist letters to researchers who were looking at the BRCA1/2 genes in their labs, providing diagnostic tests to patients and even providing patients second-opinion tests to confirm the test provided by Myriad.

Gene patents have a detrimental impact on health care and research.4 Gene patents can prevent more accurate, affordable and complex diagnostic tests from being developed.5 A survey of genetics labs found that 53 percent stopped doing research due to concerns about patented genes,6 and there has been a significant decline in published material on patented genetic information.7 The future of personalized medicine may be crushed by the weight of gene patent thickets if a company must ask permission from hundreds of patent holders to scan a single patient’s genome.

Gene patents also drive research towards gene-to-disease correlations and away from factors that actually cause disease, such as exposure to toxic chemicals. Most genetic tests offer only an estimate of the chances for developing a particular disease and fail to account for the influence of other genes and environmental factors that cause disease.8 The predictive power of the test for BRCA breast cancer mutations is high for persons from families with a history of particular kinds of breast or ovarian cancer, but very low for women without a family history of breast cancer; many women who test positive for a BRCA1 mutation do not get the disease.9 Gene patents lock-in our knowledge on these DNA sequences to only their potential correlation to a disease while preventing others from looking at how that gene may interact with other genes or the outside environment.

Are Genes Patentable?
This brings us to the recent verdict, in which the judges were not asked to rule on whether gene patents are harmful but whether they are patentable. In this respect, the appeals court largely agreed with Myriad Genetics when it determined that “isolated DNA” is patentable since it is not found in nature and is the result of a human process. The appellate court did agree with the lower court on one point when it said the act of comparing two DNA sequences (comparing a normal gene with a mutated gene sequence to identify said mutation) was not patentable since it was simply a mental process.

The majority opinion stated that, since isolated DNA is not found in nature, the act of isolating said DNA is an inventive step worthy of a patent. Since the bonds between the specific gene and the rest of the DNA had been broken, they argued, the isolated DNA is no longer a “fact of nature” but a man-made invention.

This view fails to take into account the unique nature of DNA. As Judge Sweet said in the lower court’s decision originally invalidating the BRCA1/2 genes, the “essential characteristic” of DNA is its nucleotide sequence, which is “defined by nature and central to both its biological function within the cell and its utility as a research tool in the lab.”10 In other words, DNA sequences have naturally evolved over millennia and are important not simply for their chemical construction but for the information they code for. If the genetic code and its information were different than that found in nature, Myriad’s and others’ genetic diagnostic tests would be worthless. That is why Judge Sweet called attempts to define patented genes as novel as merely a “lawyer’s trick.”

The Supreme Court has repeatedly held that facts of nature are not patentable. In the 1980 landmark case of Diamond v. Chakrabarty, the Court explained how patents can be granted to:

Anything under the sun that is made by man . . . . [T]he laws of nature, physical phenomena, and abstract ideas have been held not patentable . . . a new mineral discovered in the earth or a new plant found in the wild is not patentable subject matter. Likewise, Einstein could not patent his celebrated law that E=mc2; nor could Newton have patented the law of gravity. Such discoveries are manifestations of nature, free to all men and reserved exclusively to none.11 [emphasis added]

The dissenting judge in the appeals court agreed that genes are not patentable and that “extracting a gene is akin to snapping a leaf from a tree.” Since the genetic information in isolated genes is identical to that in genes found in nature, and in our bodies, it should be beyond the scope of patentability.

This case points out an interesting problem: We are asking our judges, who are experts in legal jurisprudence, no doubt, to make decisions about basic facts of biology and genetics. The two judges who supported gene patents, Judge Lourie and Judge Moore, studied chemistry and electrical engineering, respectively, before their legal careers.12 While they must have consulted experts on the issue, we should not delegate the future of genetic research and access to our common genetic heritage to engineers and chemists. Congress, which has constitutional authority over what is patentable, should pass legislation making it clear that genes are “facts of nature” and are therefore unpatentable. Such a law would tear down the thicket of gene patent “toll booths” that are harming patient health and scientific research.

The Next Battleground
This legal battle is far from over, since the case is expected to be decided by the Supreme Court, and no matter which way the court rules, Congress will likely step in.

As Joseph Stiglitz and John Sulston explained in the Wall Street Journal, “the patenting of human genes is wrong as a matter of science and as a matter of economics.” Lets hope Congress keeps with good science, good economics and good public health policy by declaring, once and for all, that genes and DNA sequences are facts of nature, part of our common genetic heritage, and therefore unpatentable.

Eric Hoffman is biotechnology policy campaigner at Friends of the Earth.



1Kyle Jensen and Fiona Murray, “Intellectual Property Landscape of the Human Genome”, Science, October 14, 2005. See also Human International Genome Sequencing Consortium, “Initial Sequencing and Analysis of the Human Genome”, Nature, February 15, 2001; J. Craig Venter et al., “The Sequence of the Human Genome”, Science, February 16, 2001.

2Mildred K. Cho, Preparing for the Millennium: Laboratory Medicine in the 21st Century (American Association for Clinical Chemistry Press, 2d ed., 1998), pp. 47–58.

3Joseph Stiglitz and John Sulston, “The Case Against Gene Patents”,  Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2010.

4See Jon F. Merz, Antigone G. Kriss, Debra G. B. Leonard and Mildred K. Cho, “Diagnostic Testing Fails the Test”, Nature, February 7, 2002; David Blumenthal et al., “University-Industry Research Relationships in Biotechnology”, Science, June 13, 1986; David Blumenthal et al., “Withholding Research Results in Academic Life Sciences”, Journal of the American Medical Association, April 16, 1997; David Blumenthal et al., “Data Withholding in Academic Genetics”, Journal of the American Medical Association, January 23/30, 2002.

5Gene Patents and Licensing Practices and their Impact on Patient Access to Genetic Tests, report of the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on Genetics, Health and Society.

6Mildred K. Cho, Samantha Illangasekare, Meredith A. Weaver, Deborah G. Leonard and Jon F. Merz. “Effects of Patents and Licenses on the Provision of Clinical Genetic Testing Services”, Journal of Molecular Diagnostics (February 2003).

7Fiona Murray, Scott Stern, “Do Formal Intellectual Property Rights Hinder the Free Flow of Scientific Knowledge? An Empirical Test of the Anti-Commons Hypothesis,” prepared for the NBER Academic Science and Entrepreneurship Conference (June 2005).

8Michael J. Malinowski and Robin J.R. Blatt, “Commercialization of Genetic Testing Services: The FDA, Market Forces, and Biological Tarot Cards”, Tulane Law Review, vol. 71, no. 4 (1997).

9Wylie Burke, “Genetic Testing”, New England Journal of Medicine, December 5, 2002.

10Association for Molecular Pathology et al. v. U.S. Patent and Trademark Office et al., 132, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, March 29, 2010.

11Diamond v. Chakrabarty, U.S. Supreme Court, June 16, 1980.

12Andrew Cohen, “Like a Leaf From a Tree: The Gene Patent Ruling”, The Atlantic Online, August 1, 2011.

Posted in Politics, Science | 6 Comments
July 8, 2011

Prison Hulks and Al Shabab: The Complications of the Law of War

Since the September 11 attacks,  federal judges have out of necessity plunged into the real-life facts of terrorism’s  twilight world of training camps, safe houses, and dry runs, as they review the Guantanamo dossiers of al Qaeda and Taliban suspects captured in Afghanistan and elsewhere.  Even in the view of hard-bitten intelligence types, the federal courts reviewing the habeas corpus challenges of Guantanamo prisoners stemming from the war in Afghanistan and al Qaeda’s terror attacks have done a remarkable job in measuring the dossier evidence of each capture against what can reasonably be expected during a war in the shadows.

But no routine answers may be possible in a conflict whose shape keeps morphing.  Lately, the Gulf of Aden has become a new hotspot, endangering international shipping’s route to the Suez Canal in a militant vise between the radicals of Yemen and the radicals of Somalia.  The year before September 11, a U.S. warship was bombed and nearly sunk by a skiff in a Yemeni harbor.  Al Qaeda’s new juvenile ideologue, an American named Anwar al-Awlaki, has lately taken up residence in the hills of northern Yemen, answerable only to visiting drones.  Much of Somalia’s territory is in the thrall of the radical Islamic leaders of the al Shabab militia, reducing the formal government of Somalia to a footnote in Mogadishu, even with the presence of African Union peacekeepers.

International real estate values in the Gulf of Aden have also been diminished by the fact that for the last six years, the waterway has been crowded with pirate crews who specialize in raiding container vessels, oil tankers, and yachts, seizing multi-million cargos and holding hostage the crews and passengers. Collaboration between the radicals of al Shabab and the seaside pirates is not a pleasant prospect, and same is true of Islamist cooperation across the Aden Gulf.

For that reason, one should be thrilled by the successful capture of any al Shabab leader who is cooperating with al Qaeda.  This includes the mala fides of a suspect named Ahmed Abdulkadir Warsame, who was seized last April from a fishing skiff bobbing in the waters between Yemen and Somalia.  The capture was made by the U.S.S. Boxer, an amphibious assault ship with a brig and an attitude.  Mr. Warsame was held on board the ship for the next two months while he was interrogated by U.S. intelligence specialists flown in for the purpose.  This is the kind of unconventional operation that counter-terrorism specialists such as John Brennan can brag about.

But there is one problem.  With rope work worthy of any cowpoke, the Obama Administration has captured itself in its own legal lasso.

President Obama came into office pledging that his view of the law would be different from George W. Bush and that he would close the prison facilities at Guantanamo within a year. But governing is always harder than the sound bites of a campaign trail. And though this is no surprise to anyone with radar, there appear to be dangerous leaders of al Qaeda and its affiliates still parked at Guantanamo, against whom there is not sufficient evidence for a criminal conviction by proof beyond a reasonable doubt, either under the restrictive common law rules of evidence in a federal district court or even in a military commission.  And where intelligence was first obtained from a prisoner under unconventional circumstances, the path to trial is even murkier. Thus, President Obama may—like it or not—end up far closer to the policies of George W. Bush than some of his supporters will like.

Yet the difficulty in the handling of Ahmed Abdulkadir Warsame is more basic. The Supreme Court ruled in 2004 that even in the fight against al Qaeda, one basic feature of the 1949 Geneva Conventions has to be observed: namely, the guarantees of common Article 3.  This requires “humane” treatment and the avoidance of “outrages upon personal dignity” including “degrading treatment” as well as trials that include “all the judicial guarantees which are recognized as indispensable by civilized peoples.”  In ruling that the military commissions originally constituted by George Bush did not pass this test, the Supreme Court adopted a rule of soft incorporation—namely, that the most vital norms recognized elsewhere in the Geneva Conventions may  be “read into” common Article 3.

Well, there is one rule that the White House and the Defense Department seem to have overlooked in this inconvenient instance.  It is the rule that flatly forbids holding prisoners captured in war in any locale other than “on land”—a rule with a history that stems from the American Revolution itself, when rebellious Americans caught by the British were interned in the death-dealing  conditions of British prison ships hulking in New York harbor.

While the healthy conditions of the U.S.S Boxer might seem the exception that a situational rule should permit, the norm in the Third Geneva Convention is absolute on its face—namely, as Article 22 states, “prisoners of war may be interned only in premises located on land.” President Obama could now be ready to admit that al Qaeda combatants are not, as such, fully privileged prisoners of war, but rather unlawful combatants.  Nonetheless, the avoidance of incarceration at sea is part of the fundamental protections of Geneva, rather than its privileges.

The canonical commentary on the Geneva Conventions published in 1960, summarizing the evolution of the treaty provisions, is plain spoken.  This long-standing commentary by Jean Pictet, who was the legal director of the International Committee of the Red Cross, states that “the place of internment of prisoners of war may be either in an urban area or in the country, but it must be located on land.  The use of boats, rafts or ‘pontoons’ is therefore absolutely forbidden.” It is more than possible that some American judges would conclude that the extended use of floating prisons (for any longer than is required for a transfer) is inconsistent with the standards of “humane” treatment required by common Article 3—even in the war against al Qaeda, and even if the suspect turns out to be an unlawful combatant.

Thus, it’s hard to see why it was adjudged as convenient to hold the al Shabab leader as a shipboard prisoner for more than two months, with intelligence officials flying in and flying out, rather than transporting him to Guantanamo.  Of course, there are no defense lawyers with writs of habeas corpus congregating on shipboard, and the courts have had little occasion (at least for the last 150 years) to address a writ of habeas corpus to a ship’s captain.  But by the logic of the decision on Guantanamo habeas corpus, a military ship that is not engaged in combat might—if the lingering presence of a prisoner were known—also be the subject of demands for presentment in a federal court.

It is thus another occasion when the pledge to live by the letter of the law has tripped up the Obama administration.  And in this case, it’s ironic that the unyielding presidential pledge to shut down Guantanamo may have been the tripwire for failing another test of humanitarian law.

But then, Davy Jones has not been this Administration’s strong suit. Of all people on earth, Osama bin Laden deserves to sleep with the fishes.  But the Administration did not stop to explain why the provisions of Article 20 of the Second Geneva Convention (requiring ordinary burial “[i]f dead persons are landed”) and Article 17 of the First Geneva Convention (requiring a marked grave that may be found) also did not apply.  There are strong reasons of state and prudence that might tempt one to vary from these texts.  But this requires a pragmatism of the very sort that President Obama has professed to eschew in so many other settings.

Ruth Wedgwood is the Burling professor of international law at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a member of the Hoover Institution Task Force on Law and National Security.

Posted in Law | 6 Comments
July 5, 2011

The Rocket’s Red Glare: Mladic and Mayhem

Half a lifetime ago, on a hot July afternoon, I sat in the living room of international war crimes prosecutor Richard Goldstone, glued to the screen as Dutch television newscasters announced another dreary episode in the ethnic conflict of the former Yugoslavia.  This time it was the capture of a small Bosnian municipality—the obscure town of Srebrenica—by heavily armed Bosnian Serb militia. As the newscast unspooled, Dutch peacekeeping troops with blue United Nations berets were seen milling about, inertly observing the handover of command of the U.N. “safe area” in Srebrenica to its new Serb masters.  The star of the show was a stocky Serb commander, Ratko Mladic, born in Montenegro, who used Belgrade’s money and materiel to mount an attack on the Drina Valley enclave, seeking to consolidate Serb-controlled territory across the river from Milosevic’s rump state.  Any chance for resistance was lost when Holland’s defense minister phoned the U.N. chief in Bosnia to protest the thought of using NATO air power to deter the Serbs.  The Dutch troops had also stripped the usual complement of TOW missiles from their armored personnel carriers before deploying, in deference to U.N. policy to avoid “provocation.”  And according to at least one eyewitness, Dutch troops pushed the displaced Muslim civilians outside the gates of the United Nations military encampment as the Serbs arrived.  Dutch troops watched as Serb soldiers loaded Srebrenica’s women and very young children onto buses for transport back to Muslim territory.  And they watched as Bosnian Muslim men and boys were separated and taken off in trucks as captive prisoners of war.  Or so we thought.

This was professional business for Judge Goldstone, a South African newly arrived in the international arena after helping to reform the apartheid state’s intelligence agencies through an internationalized investigation that won the gratitude of Nelson Mandela.  The task at the U.N. war crimes tribunal in The Hague—to which he was appointed with high expectations though he was to depart two years later—was to enforce the laws of war and deter future war crimes in the Balkans, as the ragged and bitter conflict continued to rage among Serbs, Croats, and Muslims in Bosnia even after the fighting subsided in Slovenia and Croatia.   Srebrenica was a small market town crowded with Muslim refugees from the surrounding farms and villages who hoped for protection from the Bosnian war’s cruel violence.

A U.N. Security Council resolution proclaimed this Muslim locale, and several others, to be “safe areas” even amidst territory controlled by Bosnian Serb militia.  Many people believed this promise of protection, for the currency of multilateral peacekeeping had not yet been devalued by a decade’s cascade of subsequent failures.  Certainly the idea of a safe area was well established, dating from the rules of war accepted even in the First World War—namely, that an open city should not be bombed or destroyed by enemy troops when it was “undefended,” for what would be the point? In the nineteenth century view, resorting to war was not illegal as such or even exceptional in the carnal pursuit of national ambition, so why should any war suffice as a reason to destroy the urban cultural achievements of a common European civilization and the prerequisites of decent life?  Destruction of an open city would be pointlessly cruel and unrelated to victory in the war.  And of course, civilians had to be treated fairly.

But there were ample warning signs of the potential hazards awaiting the civilians in U.N. safe areas in the Drina Valley.  Despite repeated requests, the U.N. refused to demarcate the outer boundaries of the Srebrenica safe zone, and Bosnian Muslim fighters (in particular, a hard-bitten commander named Naser Oric) used the movable limits of the zone as a platform for launching attacks against nearby Serb villages in the area. And as a further invitation to mischief, the U.N. troop strength in the town was limited. When the use of safe areas was first proposed in the U.N. Security Council as a way to protect refugees “in place”—avoiding the need for them to scatter across Europe—Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali had estimated that 34,000 troops were needed.  The Security Council (with U.S. concurrence) authorized 7,400.

It was a time of wide-eyed post-Cold War innocence, hard to describe to anyone who did not live through it.  Blue berets were supposed to have power almost as amulets in preventing violence, even without firing a shot.  Who, after all, would dare to defy the world community?  The answer could have been found, of course, in the memoir of Sir Brian Urquhart, a British hero of the Second World War who served with Ralph Bunche in the Congo in 1960.  As a locomotive with U.N. troops aboard steamed towards Katanga, one local tribesman asked, “L’ONU?  C’est quel tribu?” Which tribe is the United Nations?  A fine question, indeed.

But after the end of the Cold War, U.N. romanticism revived, and the petals had not yet left the rose at the time of Bosnia.  The Wilsonian dream of a league of nations was supposed to be fulfilled, this time for real, and the grim realities of low-level insurgencies were forgotten.

And then, of course, the prevailing ethos was Hippocratic, if not hypocritical. U.N. peacekeeping operations were designed to avoid the use of military force, if at all possible, even though field personnel were dressed like soldiers. In the view of the U.N.’s wartime comptrollers, even if a U.N. armored personnel carrier was attacked by a Serb tank, it could respond only while the shooter’s engine was hot, and only if a forward spotter could direct the shot. Too often, U.N. peacekeepers were used as a concierge service, tasked to deliver food to isolated Bosnian villages, but instructed to ignore the carnage in the vicinity.  Sometimes pity moved a multilateral heart to evacuate a few old people. But generally speaking, civilians were not to be rescued, only fed.  The war was likened to a football match where the referee had no stake.  And then there was the issue of numbers—the troops deployed to protect the civilians gathered in the safe zones of Srebrenica, Tuzla, Zepa, Goradze, Sarajevo, and Bihac were far too few. Perhaps Boutros-Ghali should have pulled the plug and announced the mission was unachievable. But he went ahead with a drastically reduced force.

What then happened in Srebrenica was one of the greatest stains on Europe’s moral history since the Soviet interventions in Hungary and Czechoslovakia.  Serb commanders proudly announced that for centuries past, they had saved Europe from the military progress of the “Turks” into Europe—and any Muslim in Srebrenica was to be likened to the Janissary troops of the Ottoman Empire.

After the enclave’s handover, Ratko Mladic, acting as the self-annointed savior of the Bosnian Serbs, loaded the 8,000 captured Srebrenica men and boys onto trucks.  They were driven into the forest, lined up in small groups, and executed by gunfire.  One young man, later tried for several of the murders, reported that his commander had threatened him with death when he hesitated to take part.  Serb bulldozers were used to attempt to mask the mass graves, but the sites remained visible from the air with NATO’s infrared photography.  And it was, indeed, these rancid executions that finally pushed the West to intervene in the Bosnian war in a more robust way, using air power and a Croatian military advance in Western Slavonia to force Serbia to the bargaining table.

For their crimes, Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and Serb military commander Ratko Mladic were indicted in the U.N. war crimes tribunal in The Hague.  The peace accord negotiated in Dayton, Ohio in 1995 brought an uneasy end to the fighting in Bosnia, but the ultimate author of ethnic strife in Yugoslavia, federation president Slobodan Milosevic, was allowed to play a starring role at the peace conference in exchange for calling a halt to the war he started.  And even then, the NATO forces that enforced the Dayton peace claimed to have no obligation under the Fourth Geneva Convention to search for war crimes suspects, for fear this would unsettle the locals. There were even reports that some NATO forces chose to inform the Serb authorities of their movements in the wreckage of Bosnian territory to allow the wanted men to stay out of plain sight.

And thus things remained until Milosevic was finally arrested in Serbia following his role in starting another war in Kosovo in 1998.  It took an extraordinarily brave young prime minister of the Serb republic, Zoran Djindjic, to carry out that arrest and ship Milosevic to The Hague for trial.   Despite some fine British and American trial work, the prosecution erred by insisting that all his crimes should be tried in one endless proceeding, and by the end of four years both the presiding judge and the defendant were dead, with no verdict taken.  Karadzic remained at large for another decade, until he was found living near Belgrade disguised as an alternative health worker.  Mladic is the last to be unearthed, and the completion of these two trials is seen as prerequisite to any dignified conclusion to the work of the international criminal tribunal for Yugoslavia.  Meanwhile, Serbia hopes to qualify for a slow-burn track for candidacy in the European Union in order to outgrow its recent past.

Why is this history worth recalling around the Fourth of July? For one, it’s the calendar. Wittingly or not, with his name sounding like a Popeye villain, Serb commander Ratko Mladic chose the season of our national holiday to try to embarrass NATO and steamroll the protected population of Srebrenica. It is one thing to choose your fights, and another to be mocked. The rebirth of a Europe whole and free under NATO’s fifty-year guardianship was not superintended in order to allow genocidal bullying by a local thug.

And secondly, perhaps, Bosnia’s events recall the great virtues of the democratic independence of America gained two centuries ago.  As the offshore balancer, historically aloof from Europe’s wars and remote from the Christian-Turkish confrontation in the crucible of the Balkans, the United States has nonetheless been available when circumstances permit to make a timely difference in the fate of peoples who are at death’s door.  The democratic state created some two centuries ago—through a brash declaration of independence—more than once has given a second wind to an exhausted Europe.  In celebrating our own independence, we are also marking two centuries in which we have served as guardians of the values of the West.  For universities that are just now permitting ROTC to reenter the college yard, it is worth recalling the consanguinity of liberty and valor.

Ruth Wedgwood is the Burling professor of international law at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a member of the Hoover Institution Task Force on Law and National Security.

Posted in Europe | 3 Comments
June 20, 2011

EU at the Brink of Crisis

As the euro saga unrolls before our eyes, one thing is becoming clearer: the structure surrounding the euro has its weaknesses, but the crisis is not really about the currency at all.   We are beginning to understand that this is as much a crisis of EU governance and political mentality, as of the economic policies of Greece or the ECB.

The EMU crisis is only one of the several wake-up calls the nations of Europe have received in recent months: disarray over how to react to the Arab Spring, the proliferation of failed states, the widening internal EU divide and growth of internal political unrest, failure of the 2010 (now 2020) competitiveness program and the dramatic criticisms of Europe’s weakness by outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates.   These are all signs of deeper problems that have become too obvious to be ignored.

When the euro crisis hit, EU governments appeared to be both surprised and disoriented.  They had apparently come to believe so completely in the inevitability of the euro that   warning signals were ignored or considered too delicate to raise in ECB councils.   German leaders first blamed speculators and hedge funds, before it became clear that Europe had lost control of its monetary policy to new sorts of global market dynamics for which EU structures had not been devised.

What has gone wrong?  Anyone who has worked with the EU over the years is familiar with the problem.  The Rome Treaty in 1957 was intended to overcome war-time conflicts through consensus and stability.  The original EEC was designed for evolution rather than decision; for consultation rather than action.  Its crises were ones of bureaucratic one-upmanship rather than strategic reality.  That part was handled by the United States. With the end of the Cold War, Europe no longer lived in an enclave protected by the US from the winds of change.  But its leaders had forgotten how to think strategically.  They ignored signals of an encroaching outside world, and were unprepared for the new  strategic challenges to their  interests.

For leaders conditioned primarily to maintain internal equilibrium, the natural reaction after 1990 was to do more of the same,  i.e. to work even harder to “deepen and widen” the institutional Europe of the EU.  Just as the world was becoming more multi-facetted and ever faster-moving, the EU turned in upon itself and built an even larger and more unwieldy system of internal consensus which made strategic thought almost impossible.   For example, in the aftermath of the Balkan debacle, Europe did not to seek wider strategic unity with the United States in NATO.  Instead it tried to cope institutionally.  The solution was to build a competing European defense identity, which looked primarily inward.

All this isolated European leaders even more from what was happening elsewhere.  An Obama Administration insider described the goals of the President’s recent trip to Europe as follows:  “There are a lot of forces trying to pull European attention inside. Obama is trying to make the case to both the publics and the leaders  that there are international challenges we can’t draw away from.”

Angela Merkel’s increasingly blunt language may upset some Europeans, but economic necessity has taught the Germans the importance of holding fast to the cutting edge of globalization. Their export industries know better than most how ruthless the process of change has become.  They know that they cannot maintain their position unless they continue to clear an ever higher series of  global benchmarks.  Criticisms of imbalances caused by German policies are not unwarranted.  But the German approach must be viewed against the backdrop of immobility which it sees in the rest of the European Union.

Hopefully global events will make the euro crisis into a spark for change that was coming anyway.  It has given Germany and northern Europeans a justification to push relentlessly for new standards of performance that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.

Such changes could gradually result in a new foundation for governance of the European Union, based more on performance than on consensus.  The irony is that the European movement was stimulated 60 years ago by a desire to ensure that German power never again dominated the continent.   But increasingly other Europeans are asking the Germans to exert a leadership role.  German leaders are  more fearful of their voters than of EU dynamics.  Decisions are likely to emerge not from the Kanzleramt, but from public debates in the press, the German parties and  from the courts.  As the emotional confrontation over nuclear power demonstrates, a long period of uncertain transition has already begun.

John C. Kornblum was Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs and Special Envoy to the Balkans from 1995–97, and as U.S. Ambassador to Germany from 1997–2001. This article originally appeared in the German newspaper Handelsblatt on June 20, 2011.

Posted in Europe | Leave a comment
May 23, 2011

79 Notes on Obama’s Middle East Speech

As I have done on a few occasions before, I comment here on President Obama’s speech of May 19 by annotating his text. I do this by attaching footnotes to those passages on which I wish to comment. These notes show up best in this electronic medium simply by placing your cursor on the footnote number.

As in the past when I have used this method, I comment on the art of speechwriting as well as the substance of the speech. Sometimes it is possible to keep those tasks separate, but in this speech I find that they tend to blur more than usual because the sloppy use, or curious use, of language elides more than usual on matters of substance. As you might guess from this hint, I did not think that the speech was very good.

There are at least three levels on which one can comment on a presidential speech, or any high-level political speech. The first concerns its big idea, its grand theme—the new and valuable conceptual innovation that gives the speech its purpose. The second level one might call structural—namely, how the speaker, along of course with the listener, gets from beginning to middle to end without losing the logical and emotional flow. And the third level is the more discreet use of language, the sentence-by-sentence and phrase-by-phrase crafting of the language. All three of these levels combine, when they are executed properly, to produce a high-quality speech. If any one of them is messed up, the speech will suffer. If all three are substandard, as is the case here, a disservice to the office will have been done.

Before beginning my annotation, let me talk generally about this speech to try to set out a context for my more specific comments.

The elite press has been buzzing for a week or so that the Administration has been searching for some grand narrative to accomplish a “reset” for the Middle East. There have been New York Times articles, Washington Post articles and other usual suspects who have allowed themselves to be spun by their White House sources. This is par for the course––no big surprise. At least according to these accounts, the President was seeking some way to connect the upheavals of what is generically called the Arab Spring with both the so-called peace process and the epochal events that took place in Abbottabbad on May 2. Personally, I think the choice of the word “reset” was unfortunate. It assumes that the original use of the term, in relation to policy toward Russia, has been a grand success, and I would disagree with that assessment. Continue reading

Posted in Obama, Politics | 3 Comments
May 20, 2011

Podcast: Obama’s Speech on the Middle East

After President Obama’s May 19th address on his Middle East policy, I sat down with AI Editor Adam Garfinkle. In his previous life, Adam was speechwriter for both Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice when they served as Secretary of State under George W. Bush. He’s been writing a series of line-by-line analyses of President Obama’s speeches on our site. I wanted to get his overall impressions before he took this latest speech completely apart in his usual meticulous way.

From the perspective of pure craft, Adam gave the speech relatively low marks. He also struggled to come up with a reason for why this speech needed to be given in the first place. Even though he thought the Israel-Palestine remarks were the best-executed section, those could have waited for this weekend’s talk at AIPAC. Have a listen:

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May 16, 2011

Interview: Matthew Hoh on Changing Course in Afghanistan

Late last week I had a chance to sit down for a talk with Matthew Hoh. You might remember his name from when he resigned his post with the State Department in Zabul Province in Afghanistan in 2009. Here’s a link to an article which was published around the time of his resignation. It ought to jog your memory and give you some background on what we talked about.

He’s since gone on to become Director of the Afghanistan Study Group, which last year published a report titled A New Way Forward. The report counseled in no uncertain terms that we should seriously rethink our approach to the 10 year effort in that beleaguered country, because what we were doing was clearly not working.

Now, with the death of Osama Bin Laden, the United States is poised, many hope, to take a different tack. Following on the heels of Hoh’s group’s report, the Century Foundation task force co-chaired by Lakhdar Brahimi and Thomas R. Pickering released a roadmap for how we might go about negotiating with the Taliban. No less an eminence grise than Richard Haass testified to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that it’s high time that we thought about disengaging. Can Administration thinking be far behind?

Matthew Hoh is cautiously optimistic that the stars might be aligning for a re-evaluation of our policy, but he walked me through his thinking as to why this can be such a difficult thing to achieve in government, and why he chose to fight his fight outside the walls of officialdom, unstymied by victory narratives and the siren song of counterinsurgency doctrine as cure-all.

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If you’re having trouble getting the embedded player to work for you, feel free to download the MP3 of the podcast by clicking here. Or if you’d like to subscribe (for free!) to our podcast through iTunes, you can do so here.

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April 19, 2011

Libya and Iraq, Rebels and Kurds

Making connections between the current engagement in Libya and our ongoing project in Iraq is not usually well received. To be fair, there are perhaps more differences than similarities. The European Union’s plans to ask, at last, for UN permission to send ground troops into Libya is nothing if not agonizingly slow in coming to fruition, compared to the rapid-fire shock & awe campaign that so mesmerized us in 2003. And the ongoing reluctance to use military force explicitly to unseat Qaddafi stands in stark contrast to President Bush’s brash and bullying stance towards Saddam. Nevertheless, the two conflicts do share one glaring similarity: a troubling lack of clarity on the local political realities that are likely to make our commitment much longer and more arduous than even the most pessimistic prognosticators figure.

Jeffrey Goldberg, in his infamous New Yorker article from 2002, wrote the following about Saddam Hussein’s heinous campaign against the Kurds:

The Anfal campaign was not an end in itself, like the Holocaust, but a means to an end—an instance of a policy that Samantha Power, who runs the Carr Center for Human Rights, at Harvard, calls “instrumental genocide.” Power has just published A Problem from Hell, a study of American responses to genocide. “There are regimes that set out to murder every citizen of a race,” she said. “Saddam achieved what he had to do without exterminating every last Kurd.” What he had to do, Power and others say, was to break the Kurds’ morale and convince them that a desire for independence was foolish.

Max Boot, writing in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, presented the following argument for why the United States should not be keen on leaving Iraq any time soon:

U.S. forces play a particularly important role as a peacekeeper between the Kurdish peshmerga militia and the Iraqi Security Forces along the ill-defined frontier (the “Green Line”) between Iraq proper and the Kurdish Regional Government. On a visit to Iraq last month, I encountered the umpteenth crisis between the Kurds and Arabs. The peshmerga had come down south of the Green Line to surround the disputed city of Kirkuk. The Iraqi army was moving troops to the area. Shooting could have broken out were it not for the presence of the U.S. army in the middle.

Now, though it would be disingenuous to argue that we invaded Iraq primarily in order to save the Kurds (a people who were doing fairly well for themselves under the no-fly zone we had established in the north after the first Gulf war), it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to say that “helping the Kurds” was a side benefit widely trumpeted by Iraq war supporters. The Kurds were pro-American and anti-Saddam and would prove a reliable ally in a volatile and hostile Middle East. Indeed, there was talk about the Kurdish nation as some kind of second bulwark of American influence in the region, standing alongside Israel as a beacon of what was possible when democracy was allowed to flourish.

Without casting aspersions on the historical right of the Kurdish nation to self-determination or getting into the thorny question of who should control the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, it is painfully clear from reading Goldberg’s description of Saddam’s murderous policies exactly where we went wrong. Saddam’s genocide was “instrumental” after all: It served as a gruesome means to the very definite political end of discouraging Kurdish independence. While this should not excuse Anfal one bit, it does once again reveal how harmful “feel-good” policies are if they are not examined carefully in light of political realities. It verges on irresponsible that our method of dealing with the Kurdish question was to throw democracy at it in hopes that differences could be worked out.

That the Kurds were able to set up relatively functional democratic institutions for themselves during the 1990s shouldn’t have indicated to us that a multi-ethnic Iraqi democracy is particularly likely. On the contrary, it should have suggested that the Kurds were preparing themselves for a fairly autonomous existence after the fall of Saddam, and that their dream of independence was undimmed. By removing Saddam, we removed a major obstacle standing in the way of their dream. Yet insofar as we’re committed to Iraq’s territorial integrity and a reasonably strong central government (and we absolutely are as long as we count Turkey as an ally and Iran as an adversary), the Kurdish question is nothing short of a serious problem for us. If Max Boot is right and Arab-Kurdish tensions are indeed on a knife’s edge as he describes, then Iraq as we’ve set it up may not be workable, and we’re faced with the choice between additional years of triage (with perhaps no end in sight, like in Bosnia) or the outbreak of hostilities.

The Libya parallels are suggestive, if not perfect. Even if we grant that NATO’s action averted a genocide (and, although there is ample historical evidence that Qaddafi is capable of severe brutality, the claim that he was about to embark on a policy of extermination rather than urban conquest remains dubious), the fact remains that Qaddafi was contemplating the “instrumental” form of the crime: using violence against civilians in order to forestall rebellion to his rule. By acting to prevent his barbarity, we have implicitly (and then explicitly) endorsed the politics of his opposition without giving adequate thought as to what that might mean. Just as with Iraq’s Kurds, the idea was that a pro-American and pro-democratic faction would form the foundation of a new and prosperous Libya, which would serve at least as a symbol of the West’s benevolent attitude towards the new people-powered revolutions in the Middle East. Unfortunately for us, there is an increasing volume of evidence that the legitimacy of the revolution is not being recognized across the entire country, with some of the principal tribes of the south and west throwing their weight behind Qaddafi.

Just like in Iraq, our options aren’t particularly pleasant. Given the very explicit demands by Presidents Obama and Sarkozy and Prime Minister Cameron that Qaddafi step down, short of regime decapitation we’ve limited ourselves to cease-fire agreements that provide for Qaddafi’s departure. The situation is fluid and anything is still technically possible, but the conflict seems to be grinding to a stalemate. Qaddafi feels comfortable enough to take a mid-day drive through downtown Tripoli, thumbing his nose at our efforts to unseat him. De facto partition via Western air cover may not be perfectly workable in all seasons due to crippling sandstorms, and redrawing international boundaries due to our intervention is probably as much a non-starter in North Africa as it is in the Middle East. And even in the best case scenario in which Qaddafi somehow disappears, we’d still have the difficult job of helping the various parties reconcile. Saying that this is a “task for the Libyan people themselves” is misleading at best.

In any case, the “days, not weeks” prediction may come to be seen as Obama’s “Mission Accomplished” moment—the ironic inflection point after which our prolonged involvement in a riven country is virtually ensured.

Posted in Intervention, Libya | 5 Comments
April 1, 2011

The Blindness of Interventionism

Though the signs were clear from the start of the Libya operation that people hadn’t clearly thought through the consequences of intervention, it took a tweet from Anne-Marie Slaughter (the recently-departed Director of Policy Planning at the State Department and one-time author for our magazine) to crystallize just what a mess we’re really in. She wrote: “To all who represent Libyan opposition. Pics of slapping terrified prisoners on [Anderson Cooper’s AC360 program on CNN] does not reflect values you are fighting for.”

I was struck by more than just the tone (though the thought of one of our doyens of foreign policy presuming to lecture members of a beleaguered militia on how to properly behave is galling enough). It’s that this brief late-night missive captured precisely how liberal interventionists misunderstand reality. I’m not alluding here to the oft-repeated criticism of this intervention which states that we don’t really know anything about these Libyan rebels we’re supporting. Though that argument is indeed valid and should give us pause as we pick our course in this unfortunate war, I’m getting at something more fundamental. Liberal interventionists tragically misunderstand the nature of politics and war, and the consequences of this misunderstanding could be grave and costly.

On March 30, Dr. Slaughter penned a brief article in the New York Review of Books defending President Obama’s conflation of American values and interests as being the only sensible approach in the modern world. The reason, she says, is that the world is no longer merely made up of states, but is rather now composed of societies and governments. Those in favor of a state-centered approach to foreign affairs are in denial of this new reality, she contends. “US foreign policy must change fairly dramatically to prosper in this [new] world,” and Obama’s foray into Libya in support of the aspirations of the Libyan people is a good template for how and when we should intervene.

What is this new organizational paradigm of “societies and governments?” Slaughter provides some comparisons:

In a world of states, geography is still a function of bounded physical borders. In a world of governments and societies, geography includes the unbounded virtual world in which social networks operate despite the efforts of some governments to control them. In a world of states, we look to the distribution of natural resources among them and favor those states that have more. In the world of governments and societies, we must look not only at natural resources but also at the distribution of the wealth they generate. In a world of states, governments can be bribed, coerced, and cajoled into pursuing a desired course of action. In a world of governments and societies, we must take account of the power of citizens to constrain their governments in ways that are directly contrary to our ability to solve global problems.

She seems to be implying that this new paradigm has come about through technological progress—namely through the rise of Twitter and Facebook. Though she doesn’t go so far as to argue that the state-centered model is to be discarded, she cites Hillary Clinton being snubbed by Egyptian youth activists—and “young people now make up 60 percent of the population of the Middle East” she tells us—as a grievous cost of privileging the state-centered approach. By standing on what she thinks is the right side of history in the Libyan war, America is rectifying these mistakes and supporting what is a new global organizing principle of people-powered, accountable governance. These values, she says, are our new interests. Defending them is of paramount importance.

Evidence paints a different picture. Though Facebook and Twitter provide unprecedented opportunities for non-state actors to organize and raise awareness of injustice among the public, the state remains defined by its monopoly over the use of violence. Though the Egyptian and Tunisian episodes occurred (and continue to evolve) without excessive carnage, the unrest in Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and of course Libya show that people armed with ideals and values are not sufficient agents of change. Indeed, as an article in the upcoming issue of The American Interest will argue, the reason for the relative success in Tunisia and Egypt had everything to do with the political realities and power relationships within these very different polities, and very little to do with each country’s military recognizing the legitimacy of the people’s grievances. Furthermore, in Egypt, the entrenched power of the army and the superior organization of existing parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood is tempering reform, as evidenced by the carefully choreographed constitutional referendum of March 22. Twitter and Facebook are, to be sure, unprecedentedly powerful tools for organization, but they do not change the primordial, sharp-elbowed nature of politics.

The state-centered approach is not blind to the new popular internet-fueled movements and political realities in the Middle East, but it does question the likelihood of their success. (A survey of the recent “color” revolutions, also forthcoming in our pages, paints a mixed picture.) It posits that the deciding factor in the early days of these Middle Eastern revolutions is not primarily the values being fought for, but violence—whether, and how decisively, it is used. The Libyans, accustomed to 40-odd years of brutal rule by Qaddafi, understood this all too well and chose to respond in kind. What may have started as a protest for democratic change is now very much a war over the state itself. The discussion is no longer about values, but over power, territory, and sovereignty.

Slaughter’s tweet in particular is emblematic of a worldview blind to all of this. And insofar as decision-makers within the Obama Administration persist in sharing Slaughter’s blind spots, we may be in for even more perverse outcomes before this is all said and done. A NATO spokesperson announced that if the rebels were to shell cities in trying to unseat Qaddafi, they too will be bombed, as the UN resolution “applies to both sides.” If our imperfect proxies do not live up to the standards we have set for them in their fight against a dictator we seem to want unseated, some are sure to end up in the dock at the Hague, right next to Qaddafi and his sons. These are the paradoxical wages of an intervention focused on values rather than interests, and on ideals rather than concrete goals.

None of this is to argue that we should applaud the rebels if they brutalize their way to Tripoli, nor to mythologize this ragtag group as lightly-armed Davids in a fight with their Goliath in the desert. On the contrary, it’s an argument for staying out of the whole mess, as civil wars and revolutions tend to beget this kind of stuff. Now that we’re in well past our knees, the best outcome would be for Qaddafi to be forced out somehow, as the Administration seems to hope will come to pass. But it would surely be compounding the mistake of entering this war in the first place if our role devolves to playing human rights referee in what could be an increasingly brutal and drawn out conflict.

I argued in my previous post that liberal interventionists systematically ignore political realities and privilege moral concerns in making their decisions. It may be closer to the truth to say that they just don’t understand reality very well at all, and that this often results in a morally muddled, deplorable outcome.

Posted in Intervention, Libya | 4 Comments