September 8, 2011

The heart of the problem

Just as the witticism in American politics today is that the intellectually challenged Tea Party activists are pitted against the snobbish Coffee House elites, a witticism for the current Indian situation is that ‘Anna’ Hazare is taking on what we might call the ‘Rupaiah’ politicians and bureaucrats who have corrupted Indian governance. Indeed, he is. But if he is to flog the problem, instead of flagging it, the nature of the beast to be tamed must be understood.

Corruption in India, whose absence was among the hallmarks of Indian political virtue in the 1950s, has broken out like the devastating bubonic plague of the mid-14th century. But if it is to be attacked effectively, we need to distinguish between two forms of corruption.

First, corruption is rampant at the level of politicians selling licences and top bureaucrats using their discretion to get perks in kind. This is corruption where the authorities are rewarded for doing what they are supposed not to do: i.e. giving licences to those who bribe rather than to those more deserving. This may be called high-level corruption and is the legacy of the permit raj which created what economists call “rents”; windfall profits generated by enacting licence-defined barriers to entry by domestic and foreign firms, leading to monopolies.

A recent Supreme Court bench, composed of judges Sudershan Reddy and Surinder Singh Nijjar, in a judgment in a case involving unaccounted monies, attacked “neoliberal” reforms starting in 1991 as the cause of corruption. In fact, the reforms reduced high-level corruption. Foreign firms could now enter most industries, though not yet freely. Entry by domestic firms was made even easier with the virtual elimination of conventional industrial licensing. And while some focus on the gigantic family firms like that of the Ambanis to suggest that India is like Russia with its privatisation-created oligarchs, they forget that gigantic new firms, with no historical family brands like Birlas and Tatas, have been springing up in India often from scratch entirely thanks to the substantial freeing of entry. Just think of Infosys, Wipro and the Kotak Mahindra Bank.

The ability of huge firms or cronies to bribe governments into creating monopolies that create rents which they capture and share with the obliging politicians and bureaucrats is no longer what it was when we had strict licensing and government-created monopolies in all kinds of activities were accepted as ‘normal’ and even desirable. The 2G spectrum scam is far less stereotypical today than it would have been in the pre-reforms era.

On the other hand, we have now a far more pervasive second type of corruption: the low-level corruption where one has to bribe clerks to get them to do what they are supposed to do. The middle class, in both urban and rural areas, has long been fed up with having to grease every palm that handles documents such as birth certificates and driving licenses. The huge response to the Anna-centred agitation is the surface manifestation of this deeply felt sense of malaise that has been growing on the Indian scene with recurrent encounters with bribe-taking petty bureaucrats and officials.

The original article appeared in the Times of India.

Posted in General | 1 Comment
September 6, 2011

An Open Letter to President Obama on Doha

August 31, 2011

Mr. Barack Obama
President of the United States
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. President:

As the window of opportunity for a robust deal on Doha Round is closing, with the United States now about to enter into an election mode, we make an appeal for Presidential leadership in the United States to put Doha into closure along with the three Free Trade Agreements that finally seem close to passage by bipartisan agreement.

The fear of the labour unions that trade with the poor countries produces poor in the rich countries is mistaken. The demand of the business lobbies that want ever more concessions from others is excessive. The contention of some experts that the gains from Doha are minuscule is flawed in neglecting the costs of the failure of Doha and the ensuing damage to the WTO. The retribution by a protectionist public is greatly exaggerated: many jobs today depend on both exports and imports and the polls reflect that.

President Obama: you have not failed to step up to the plate on issues like the repeal of the Don’t Ask and Don’t Tell policy in the armed forces. You can do so again to carry Doha past the finish line. You were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the multilateralism that you promised. You can earn it with leadership on Doha, a multilateral venture par excellence.

Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia University and CFR

Claude Barfield, AEI

Herminio Blanco, Former Secretary of Commerce and Industry, Mexico

Hugh Corbet, Cordell Hull Institute, Washington DC

W. Max Corden, University of Melbourne, Australia

Donald R. Davis, Columbia University

Alan Deardorff, Michigan University, Ann Arbor

Vivek Dehejia, Carleton University, Canada

Barry Desker, NTU and Former Ambassador to Indonesia, Singapore

Elias Dinopoulos, University of Florida

Peter Drysdale, Australian National University

Sebastian Edwards, UCLA

Frederick Erixon, ECIPE, Brussels

Simon Evenett, St. Gallen, Switzerland

Robert Feenstra, UC Davis

Ronald Findlay, Columbia University

K.C. Fung, UCSC

Ross Garnaut, University of Melbourne, Australia

Jan Willem Gunning, VU University of Amsterdam

Tatsuo Hatta, Osaka University and GRIPS

Mats Hellström, Former Minister of Foreign Trade, Sweden

Hal Hill, Australian National University

Douglas Irwin, Dartmouth College

Peter Kleen, ECIPE, Brussels

Pravin Krishna, SAIS and Johns Hopkins University

Anne Krueger, SAIS

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, ECIPE, Brussels

Phil Levy, AEI

Rodney Ludema, Georgetown University

Petros Mavroidis, Columbia University and Neuchatel, Switzerland

Patrick Messerlin, Sciences Po, France

Devashish Mitra, Syracuse University

Piyusha Mutreja, Syracuse University

Leif Pagrotsky, Sveriges Riksbank and Former Minister of Foreign Trade, Sweden

Arvind Panagariya, Columbia University and Brookings Institution

Lourenco Paz, Syracuse University

Raymond Riezman, University of Iowa

Tom Prusa, Rutgers University

Peter Rosendorff, New York University

Razeen Sally, ECIPE, Brussels

André Sapir, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels

Robert Stern, Michigan University and UC Berkeley

Subidey Togan, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey

Tony Venables, Oxford University

Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia Business School

David Weinstein, Columbia University

John Whalley, University of Western Ontario, Canada

Kar-yiu Wong, University of Washington

Posted in Trade | 1 Comment
August 24, 2011

Multinational Corporations and Development: Friends or Foes?

It is an honor to be this year’s Eminent Scholar in International Management. I join a distinguished group of previous recipients, led by the late C.K.Prahlad who was also a good friend and indeed an important supportive voice in India’s march to reforms since 1991 that I had been advocating ceaselessly since the mid-1960s and whose implementation — pretty substantial but still ways to go — has led to India’s reversal of fortune from the status of a diminished Lilliputian to that of an awakened Gulliver.

When I find, after the current crisis, populist critics like my colleague Joe Stiglitz arguing that India had moved from pragmatism to market fundamentalism, and that too under conditionality from Washington which reflected the so-called Washington Consensus, my reaction is: familiarity breeds contempt but contempt does not breed familiarity. Mr. Stiglitz is blissfully ignorant of the fact that we shifted, not from pragmatism to market fundamentalism, but from an anti-market fundamentalism to pragmatism. We also did this endogenously (as did Soviet Russia and the Chinese) because we ourselves were convinced that the “old model” of knee-jerk interventions and autarky had run us into the ground. The Washington Consensus is little more than Washington Conceit that the superficial commentators have embraced: it also gets the anti-US forces animated and galvanized against the reforms.

I might add that, while intellectuals such as myself — except for a sabbatical spent at the World Bank many years ago, I have had nothing to do with the World Bank or the IMF, or for that matter, have never consulted with the US Treasury or Wall Street firms — played a major role in India’s shift to reforms, there were also other important factors that gave added nudge to the reforms. The present Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told me that Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, who provided him (as the Finance Minister) the necessary political cover to initiate the reforms in 1991, had also been influenced by the critiques of the astonishingly inefficient Indian policies by his own extended family in the US. Then again, there was increasing dissonance between Indians’ self-regard, based on pride in an ancient civilization, and their experience of contempt for their dismal economic performance when they traveled abroad. The worst psychological state to be in is to have a superiority complex and an inferior status!

All this and more on India would have made for a fascinating Award Lecture. However, I noticed that last year’s Eminent Scholar, Stephen Kobrin, spoke to you about the multinational firm in today’s world economy.  That is yet another area where I have worked for nearly four decades. It is also an area of immense topical interest. So I have chosen to talk on that subject instead.

The role of multinationals in development has never been free from controversy. But the arguments of both the critics and the proponents have gone through significant changes as structural changes in the world economy have occurred and changes in society and governance such as a growing civil society and spread of democracy worldwide have occurred. Equally, it is now clear that, if multinationals are to play a welcoming and beneficial role in the developmental process, they need to re-conceptualize the way they operate in the host countries. If they do so, they will become true friends of the developmental process, and the opponents who charge that they are foes instead will lose political salience.

I:       Alternative Views on Impact of Globalization

The earliest arguments as the leaders of the  newly independent developing countries began to plan for accelerated growth and resulting reduction of poverty — what I have called the progressive and activist  “pull up” strategy for reducing poverty, in contrast to the conservative characterization of it as a passive “trickle down strategy suggesting that the Earl of Nottingham and his vassals are eating leg of lamb and venison at a high table, with crumbs falling to the dogs and serfs below— the question that faced them involved answering a basic economic-philosophical question.  How would integration into the world economy on dimensions such as trade, equity investment (i.e. multinationals), migration and technology (e.g.  intellectual property protection) work? Would, as the opponents argued, integration into the world economy on these different dimensions lead to disintegration of the national economy; or would it help instead?

At the time, I distinguished among four different schools of thought. First, there was the benign impact model: this fitted into economists’ thinking since they are used to “mutual gain” outcomes. Thus, multinationals would earn profits but they would also bring funds and technology, for instance, to the host countries.  Similarly, freer trade would benefit all. Then, there was also the more pleasing template of benign intent. Multinationals saw themselves as agents of benign change. Aid was given to reflect the white man’s burden: it was altruistic. But then there was the malign impact view. President Cardoso, who was earlier an eminent sociologist in Brazil, and Raul Prebisch of Argentina and first Secretary General of UNCTAD, were among those who propounded this bleak view. The former is known for the “dependencia” thesis that the developing countries would wind up in a state of dependency with increased international integration: multinationals were seen as sources of a malign impact. But then there were many, some in the developed countries as well, who thought in terms of malign intent: aid, for instance, was being given to hold the decolonized countries into a neocolonial embrace.

Let me now treat the evolution of thinking about multinationals and their role in development, using this fourfold division of views that characterized different scholars and policymakers in the postwar years.

II:  Benign Impact Arguments for Multinational Corporations

At the outset, the benign impact arguments in favor of investing in developing countries came, as one would guess, principally from the mainstream economists. Let me recap just a few of the important ones   that led many to argue that there was a “presumption” that multinationals (MNCs) brought good to the developing countries.

(a)Several economists focused on the inflow of funds that MNCs would bring to the host countries. If MNCs earned a return equaling the value of their contribution to the host country (i.e. there were no uncompensated externalities or other market failures or policy-imposed distortions), one may deduce that there was neither benefit nor loss to the host country: what the MNCs contributed to the host country was what they earned, leaving no “surplus” that would benefit the host country. But it is obvious that, if MNCs are taxed by the host country as they are, that implies that the MNCs earn less than their contribution to the host country.

Yet another pro-MNC presumption followed from the fact that, if real wages were bounded from below and there was surplus labour available as in the Marx-Lewis model of the reserve army of labour available at a given wage, the social return from funds brought in by the MNC investment would not just be the private return on the investment but also the wages earned by the surplus labour that was hired thanks to the investment influx. Since countries like India and China had abundance of surplus labour at a given wage, the MNC investment would have a social return that exceeded its private return. That reinforced greatly the tax-defined presumption in favour of MNCs.

(b) But, of course, MNCs do not bring in just funds (sometimes they do not even do that, raising all their funds in the host country). They bring in external (marketing) networks and internal diffusion of knowhow.

Thus, we know that MNCs now source their inputs from many sources and they virtually guarantee external sales of the components they manufacture.           Again, retailers like Wal-Mart are conduits for purchase in the host country and sales in foreign countries.

Again, economists had long hypothesized that MNCs are the source of new management techniques and of new technologies which diffuse at low cost through the host country. There are now numerous empirical studies of the channels through which such diffusion occurs.

It is not surprising therefore that worldwide the benign impact view of MNCs has come to prevail. Countries such as India (where the pre-reforms policy based on a malign view of MNCs had reduced equity investment by MNCs to almost $100 million) have come around to increasingly opening their doors to welcoming MNCs. The early view of MNCs in many of these countries that MNCs were foes of development has changed to the benign view that they are friends instead.

In fact, one could even say that there is now a virtual competition among many developing countries for MNCs, pretty much the way states in US compete to attract manufacturing firms to locate in them, granting all kinds of rewards such as tax holidays, subsidized land and other benefits, raising the legitimate question whether, once these giveaways are factored in, the MNCs remain beneficial to the host countries/states. A legitimate fear is that we may be getting a race to the bottom and the presumption that the taxes on MNCs leave the host country better off may be getting reversed in such a “race to the bottom” in giveaways. Astonishingly, but not surprisingly (given the self-serving lobbying by MNCs, a subject I turn to later in this Lecture), the MNCs have wanted at the OECD to reduce taxes, arguing that they distort allocation of investments among host countries, but have not symmetrically argued that subsidies would do that too!

III:   The Malign Impact Arguments

In fact, the specific malign-impact arguments that had provided support for the anti-MNC policies in earlier times have now lost salience. The principal ones related to adverse impact on local entrepreneurship and on the political intrusions. The former has been discredited; the latter is no longer compelling.

(a)    Albert Hirschman was the most articulate proponent of the view that MNCs would stifle local entrepreneurship. This fueled the attempts at imposing the requirement that only joint ventures with local partners would be acceptable.  But it became pretty clear that MNCs could be conduits for increased competitiveness of local firms: as noted above, diffusion of technology and “best practices” often follows, improving the competitiveness of domestic rivals. This happens, for the most part, by example; but it also happens because the host country nationals who are typically employed by the MNCs often acquire the skills and knowhow which lead to their setting up their own new forms (e.g. Uday Kotak, who represented Goldman Sachs in India, has now set up his own Kotak bank and become the most important financial entrepreneur in India).

Besides, where local knowhow (typically in the shape of contacts and networking which enable the MNC to function more efficiently in the host country) matters, joint ventures often follow. Moreover, forcing MNCs into marriage with some local firm/investor, is more likely to imply profit-sharing with the lucky firm chosen to meet the host-country requirement, creating rentiers rather than true entrepreneurs.

(b)   The question of political intrusion has been one of the greatest concern. Just think of how Pepsi and AT&T got involved with Kissinger and the CIA in facilitating the destabilization of the Allende regime and the military takeover by Pinochet. [Ironically, no one remembers the Pepsi story and the beverage firm smells like roses to many who know no history.] Or of the Katanga intervention and assassination of Patrick Lumumba by Union Meuniere. Today, with massively increased transparency and the growth of civil society groups that monitor and agitate against such practices by MNCs, it is far less feasible for the MNCs to behave in these reprehensible ways.

1.      Recently, however,  new malign-impact arguments have come from the civil Society and from labour unions in the developed countries. They are also misplaced, however.

The most astonishing argument has come from groups that argue that MNCs “exploit” local workers by paying them “low wages”. Of course, poor countries have low incomes and low wages! Instead of comparing the wages paid by MNCs with local wages in non-MNC firms — here the MNCs win hands down, for the most part, as there is an observed premium if you are employed in an MC which many scholars have tried to explain in terms of  the efficiency-wage  and other models—, the comparison is made with wages back home. And when you ask workers: should you be paid higher wages, it is not surprising that they say “yes” just as I and my distinguished Discussants would likely say to our Deans also. As we say in jargon, income has a positive marginal utility. [I am not sure about the Brits who seem sometimes to put conditions on proposed increases in their wages like: “provided” others get wage increases also.]

Specious assertions in support of the exploitation argument are also made by saying that MNCs earn high profits and can “afford” to pay higher wages. This supposes that MNCs are earning abnormal profits. But in industries like apparel, which are often the object of agitation by our unions and NGOs charging exploitation, the competition is fierce and I have never seen evidence of abnormal profits.

Again, I have been in debates where a union leader would flamboyantly violate the rules and wave a sweatshirt, saying that it costs $10.00 in New York but the wage paid in Guatemala is only 50 cents. Quite respectable economists at the pro-labor Economic Policy Institute have argued this way also. Typically, for instance, a $100 jacket in an Ann Klein store would be contrasted with a wage of $2.00 per hour in Nicaragua in the Export Processing Zone. But this is not sensible. For one thing, out of ten coats designed, nine will probably bomb out, leaving the effective sale in New York at $10 instead of $100. Again, you have to add transport costs and tariffs (which are high on apparel) which push up the retail price but not profits in New York: so, we are probably down to $5 and then things look far less melodramatic. Again, the gross value of the retail sale in New York is no index of the value added in Zambia to which the wage paid in Zambia might be related: Zambia may be adding only $100 worth of value to unpolished diamonds that sell, after being polished, for $10,000 in New York.

While many NGOs are simply confused about all this, the bottom line is that unions in the developed countries are agitated about competition from the developing countries and, hiding behind the façade of altruistic concern with exploitation of workers abroad , they seek to prevent the outflow of DFI to developing countries abroad and the resulting addition to competition for themselves.

I must also add that the claim that MNCs exploit and hence harm foreign workers by paying them “low” wages is in fact the opposite of what MNCs manage to achieve for these workers. By increasing the demand for workers, MNCs generally will increase employment and/or improve the wages of the workers: that is the only successful way to help the workers in a sustainable fashion. Take China, for example. The rapid growth in the Guangdong provinces, aided immensely by MNCs spearheading an unprecedented export boom, greatly increased the demand for workers. As long as workers were in elastic supply (the “reserve army of labour” was kicking in), the added demand for labour led to increased employment. But then the supply of labour began to increase at a much slower rate because the one-child policy kicked in and the inflow of new labour from the hinterland (as distinct from availability of surplus labour in the Guangdong provinces themselves) became difficult because of infrastructure problems. The result was that wages began to rise. This also meant that working conditions improved in a market where labour began to be scarce rather than abundant.

A Caveat: The foregoing arguments then suggest that MNCs and Development are generally speaking friends, not foes. But one caveat must be entered. If the host country is not smart about the policy framework within which the MNCs come in, it can turn MNCs into foes of development. As Ian Little of Oxford has wisely remarked: Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) into a country is as good or bad as its own policies. This is best illustrated by the classic contrast between “Import substituting” (IS) and “Export Promoting” (EP) variety of DFI, the argument being that the former is likely to be bad for the host country the way that the IS strategy yields little returns from domestic resources, whereas the latter is beneficial like the EP strategy which uses domestic resources well.

That an IS strategy has been generally counterproductive, except for an early phase of development, is now conceded by many development-and-trade scholars, except for a handful of prominent economists, chief among them  Dani Rodrik of Kennedy School at Harvard and Joe Stiglitz at Columbia. There is far too much empirical evidence now from many economists such as Arvind Panagariya of Columbia that simply cannot be ignored. There is also compelling evidence that the resulting growth, once outward orientation was embraced and growth enhanced, the resulting growth did pull up over 200 million above the poverty line: in short, the growth has been “inclusive” contrary to popular assertions. The revenues generated by the enhanced growth are also enabling direct expenditures finally to be undertaken, not just promised, that will (if properly managed) lead to improved healthcare and education for the poor.

What Ian Little says is that if the IS strategy is a bad framework to get a lot out of your own resources, it will be bad for the use of foreign resources as well. This sounds like commonsense, of course. But it has also been demonstrated theoretically by many economists including myself, Koichi Hamada, Richard Brecher and Carlos Diaz Alejandro. While India had discouraged DFI prior to the reforms, so we can test for Little’s proposition, China certainly was into IS strategy and allowed for more IS-variety DFI inflow; and its DFI in the Guangdong provinces was certainly based on outward orientation. Where the earlier IS variety of (what is sometimes described as “tariff-jumping” DFI policy where you attract DFI by closing the market to imports as against domestic assembly in China) DFI was a failure — Jim Mann has documented beautifully why and  how the Beijing Jeep DFI by Chrysler failed –, the EP variety was a huge success.

I might add as an aside that, now that the Chinese market has become uniquely gigantic, the Chinese are into reverting to the old-style IS variety of DFI policy again, but now to great advantage. China is now saying again to foreign firms, as at the time of the Beijing Jeep, if they will not produce in China, enabling the Chinese then to pick up their technology on the cheap, China will simply turn to their rivals.  Faced with the choice of losing a huge market to its rivals (e.g. GE versus Siemens) by resisting the Chinese tactic  and surrendering to it by investing instead and having the Chinese pick up its technology on the cheap, the foreign firm can do little but choose the latter option. I see no way, short of infeasible collusion among the foreign firms, that this Chinese tactic can be countered. The Chinese, thanks to this tactic of technology-extraction which has become possible now because of the enormous growth of its market, have thus provided a new and favourable twist to the IS type of investment from the viewpoint of the host government: but it applies only when the host country’s market is immense.

IV:  MNCs and Rule Setting: A Problem Area

So far, I have been dealing with the question of MNCs and Development in terms of the outcomes within the framework of their operation in a policy framework that they did not themselves manage to define. But once we drop this assumption, as we must, then the benign view of MNCs which now prevails begins to change and the need for international governance to minimize possible malign effects from rules reflecting lobbying interests becomes more evident.

I am afraid that the track record of MNCs in defining rules is not exactly exemplary. Well-known examples include the lobbying by American MNCs against the International Code of Marketing of Breast-Milk Substitutes which had been approved by nearly all nations, with the lobbying going so far as to get the USTR to threaten smaller countries into not enforcing the Code. Similarly, cigarette firms in the US insisted on their being granted the ability to advertise their cigarette brands in Thailand even though it was clear that such a concession would increase sharply the total amount of cigarette consumption, not just increase their share. Again, American firms have lobbied fiercely to prevent the automatic extension of FDA bans in the US on hazardous drugs to sales abroad on the argument that it is up to these  governments to prevent such sales if they care to do so, ignoring the fact that these governments may be ignorant or, more likely, captured/bribed into not enacting such bans by these very firms.

Recent examples would include the damage that US multinationals have done to the cause of multilateral free trade. They have been pushing for Free Trade Agreements, which are Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) because they free trade only for members of the FTA. As such, they undermine the principle of non-discrimination and, as I have pointed out in my 2009 book, Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade (Oxford) lead to a veritable flood of FTAs which have now become a “systemic” issue, creating a maze of criss-crossing discriminatory tariffs depending on source and to arbitrary rules of origin that I have called a “spaghetti bowl” phenomenon and affliction. The FTAs  also have led to a variety of trade-unrelated and self-serving requirements to be imposed on weaker countries  in one-on-one negotiations by the lobbies (including Corporate lobbies) of the hegemonic powers such as the US and the EU, turning the trade game into a shell game. At the same time the US MNCs have put their weight behind undermining the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, greedily asking for ever more concessions  from other countries when the crying need after ten years of negotiations is to settle with what we have  and then to go on to another Round for “unfinished business”.

V: Corporate Social Responsibility

But if MNCs have occasionally behaved less than responsibly in defining the rules and institutions that relate to international governance, they now face demands from civil society to step up to what has come to be known as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR).

It is well-known that economists such as Milton Friedman have opposed this by arguing that altruism should be left to the shareholders. The shareholders can spend moneys earned by way of dividends and capital gains from their ownership of stocks in the Corporation on doing good in ways they like: there should be no role for the Corporation to do altruism.  To put it differently, Management should be out of doing CSR except insofar as CSR is undertaken like advertising expenditures, with CSR programs being undertaken with a view to protecting the corporation from unscrupulous attacks on them by NGOs advancing their own agendas.

This is an issue that did not exist when there were family firms since ownership and management were flip sides of the family. Now that Management and Shareholding are divorced in the case of most Corporations, the question of CSR by Management on behalf of the Corporation as such becomes pertinent.

My own view is that Corporations are legal persons. Besides, society today sees them as having an identity that extends beyond ownership. So there is a widespread perception that Corporations should act on altruism as if they were legal persons with an identity of their own. Once this is conceded, it is inevitable that Management will take a central role in defining CSR. Legitimacy will then require that CSR be not the sole prerogative of the CEO or the Board of Directors but should require that voices of the workers and lower-level management be heard before any decisions are taken on what the content of the Corporation’s CSR program should be.

I should add that one of the “efficiency” effects of CSR by Management, which makes CSR a matter of “enlightened self-interest” is almost certainly in attracting staff that feels more enthused about the firm. There is much evidence that many lower-level executives want to work for firms that are ethical and seen to be altruistic.

Nor should one forget that such CSR by MNCs must reflect some commitment to expenditures on programs in the host, not just the home, countries. Nor do I think that CSR must be uniform, following the dictates of some zealous activists. Altruism must allow for diversity: let a hundred flowers bloom, not that Maoists can cut them down but so that they fill Spring with their splendor.

Mind you, this corporate altruism by MNCs is not to be seen as atonement for the harm that they do to Development . As argued above, I believe that MNCs, by and large, do a lot of good. I see CSR by MNCs as essentially adding to the good they do.

Remarks by Jagdish Bhagwati, upon the receipt of the International Management Award from the Academy of Management in San Antonio, Texas on August 14, 2011.

Posted in Economics | 1 Comment
August 8, 2011

Temper Tantrum in American Politics

While American politics has not descended to fist fights or pandemonium inside Capitol Hill, though the occupation and disruption of the Wisconsin Capitol by demonstrators in February this year for two weeks by pro-union demonstrators protesting Republican Governor Scott Walker’s bill to severely curtail the collective bargaining rights of public-sector unions, and its celebration by many Democrats who should know better, was an ill omen.

The real problem is that the polarization that President Obama inherited has, if only, increased, making measured and informed responses to demanding problems difficult and hostage to shrillness and lack of the civility that is necessary for effective governance.

The uncivil discourse became intense after President George W. Bush won against Al Gore and the disputed election in Florida went to the Supreme Court where Gore did not prevail. There were shrill cries of a “stolen election” by agitated Democrats as if they had never heard of the “stolen election” of President Kennedy in Chicago.  Even the legitimacy of the Bush Presidency was questioned, indeed decried. There was no dearth of matching vitriol on the Republican side.

Thus, when I attended President Bush’s Economic Summit in Waco, Texas — when I saw that I was the only non-Republican economist to have been invited, I asked and was told that they wanted the “best trade economist today” to attend, an explanation that I naturally loved —, a dinner was thrown for me  at the neighbouring university. The host faculty,  mostly Republican,  were jesting  how Governor Anne Richards of Texas, a passionate critic of the Bushes and whose glorious face reminded one of Clint Eastwood, had gone to a plastic surgeon for a facelift; and the surgeon had to take so much skin off that he had presented her with a pair of shoes made from her own skin. Repelled, I returned to MIT in Cambridge and attended a party on our street in Lexington, and an angry Democrat neighbour came up to me and stunned me by asking: Do you know that Bush walks with a swagger because he has lice in his armpits?

The ongoing economic crisis, resulting in passionately divergent solutions favoured by extreme Democrats and Republicans, the Starbucks Coffee intellectuals and the Tea Party anti-intellectuals, has exacerbated this polarization. Americans are of course used to rantings on radio by Rush Limbaugh on the right and on television by Keith Olbermann on the left. But what is new now, in a throwback to the post-Florida tempest, is the abandonment of civility by a growing number of moderate politicians and columnists.

Thus, Democrat Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas  has gone public with her belief that the Republicans are unwilling to compromise on the debt ceiling because of Obama’s race: “only this President, only this one, has received [this] kind [of] attacks and disagreements”. Charges of racism on this issue strain credulity; they also tear at the fabric of civil discourse.

Then again, columnist Matt Miller of the Washington Post, a dignified voice of liberalism, could not contain his anger that the rating agencies had dared to suggest that the US could lose its triple A rating in the absence of a fiscal fix. But watch the language in which he describes these agencies: “Hearing [this] from firms that deserve scorn for their shameful and still-unreformed behavior in recent years, is too much to take” (italics inserted).

But the most remarkable example of lapse into a screed is on the part of the former speechwriter and Wall Street Journal columnist, Peggy Noonan. Writing on July 23rd, she asked President Obama to “get out of the way” on the debt ceiling talks. “When he speaks on debt negotiations, he is not only extremely boring, with airy and bromidic language really, they are soul-killing his talking points… [His word] enveloped the [Gang of Six] plan in his poisonous embrace…He is like a walking embrace.” (Italics inserted)

Through this cross-fire, President Obama has admirably kept his cool and resisted the advice from the extremes to raise his voice and to join those who mistake soaring into the upper octave with making good music. Since Lithium is the drug used to moderate highs and lows, I once described him in The Financial Times as the first Lithium President of the United States.

But if amiability is his virtue, is making compromises his vice? Yes, sometimes it is better to be doing nothing than doing what is feasible but inappropriate.  As a wit has put it: if a fundamentalist wants to take you to the 7th century and you want to be in the 21st, you should not settle for the 14th.

But the compromise that Obama reached on the Debt Ceiling was surely not that. A default would have left everyone, including him, covered with the fallout.  Obama’s compromise was strategic. He figured correctly,  as the collapse in the Dow Jones underlined, that the anti-spending frenzy of the Republicans which violated all cannons of economic sense in a situation of deficiency of aggregate demand and which he could not overcome if the debt default had to be avoided in the national interest, would give him the best chance to say: look even Wall Street thinks the Republicans insisting on massive spending cuts are out of their mind , so stay with me in 2012 as I offer you the better chance at turning the economy around and returning prosperity to you. Time will tell.

Posted in Politics | 7 Comments
July 27, 2011

The Wrong Way to Free Trade

LATE last week, a longstanding debate over free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama — deals that were negotiated under President George W. Bush but never finalized — stalled once again. President Obama supports the agreements, but only if more retraining for workers is part of the deal, a condition Republican leaders are resisting.

Both sides claim to advance the trade agenda, but they are fighting over fairly minor points. Neither side shows the slightest interest in reinvigorating the nearly 10-year-old Doha round of global trade negotiations, which have far greater potential to create prosperity and help working Americans.

Bilateral trade agreements are not the same as free trade. Yes, they liberalize trade for the parties involved, but outsiders then face a handicap. The discrimination comes in the form of barriers like tariffs and antidumping charges, which countries impose on imports that they believe are priced artificially low.

When the United States negotiates bilateral deals with other countries, the unbalanced nature of the one-on-one negotiations also opens the way for all manner of lobbies to ram their self-serving demands into the agreements.

For example, when Washington negotiated free trade deals with Chile and Singapore, Wall Street lobbied to curtail those countries’ right to impose restrictions on capital flows at times of crisis — even though the International Monetary Fund now admits that such restrictions often make sense. Business lobbies have also pressed for excessively favorable treatment on intellectual property rights.

American labor unions have learned these same tricks, urging Democratic legislators and administrations to block bilateral trade deals unless their demands for labor protections are met, as they did with the three long-delayed agreements now pending.

But larger countries with more clout, like India and Brazil, will allow no such provisions. They correctly see these labor provisions as a form of anticompetitive protectionism. And they point out that it takes chutzpah for the United States to argue for labor rights abroad that often exceed those at home.

Moreover, when powerful business and labor interests can extract concessions in those bilateral deals, they have no reason to support a multilateral trade agenda. Mr. Obama’s trade representative, Ron Kirk, points out that business leaders press bilateral trade deals, not the Doha round. The proponents of bilateral deals always complain that multilateralism is too slow. This surely confuses cause and effect.

Only presidential leadership can set our trade policy in the right direction: away from bilateral deals and toward Doha. First, Mr. Obama needs to bring the business lobbies on board.

Here is one sweetener he can offer: Finish the Doha round on the basis of what has been negotiated and then declare a new round that will start right away and address unresolved issues. The Doha round, after all, was conceived to address the “unfinished agenda” of the preceding Uruguay round, which ended in 1995 with much accomplished but also much left undone.

Next, the canard that Doha offers little gain for the United States must be put to rest. C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has estimated that the annual economic gain to the United States from the Doha round would be only $6 billion to $7 billion — a figure widely cited by Doha’s opponents. But a policy must be judged not just by what it directly achieves but also by what would happen in its absence.

The failure of Doha would cause immeasurable harm. It would undermine the credibility of the W.T.O. and its progress in promoting multilateral trade liberalization, and it would begin to erode the binding dispute settlement mechanism, an achievement unparalleled in other international institutions.

The value of that mechanism was demonstrated just this month, when a W.T.O. panel ruled for the United States and the European Union in a case challenging China’s restrictions on exports of industrial raw materials.

President Obama must persuade labor unions, core Democratic constituents, that they are wrong to buy into the fear-mongering that says trade with poor countries produces poverty in rich countries. In fact, what depresses workers’ wages are deep and continuing technological changes; cheap imports of consumer products help workers by offsetting that effect.

The president should ask Democrats and Republicans to immediately add the Doha round, as it has been negotiated over 10 years, into the same all-or-nothing package as the three bilateral deals. Such a bold gesture has a precedent. After sitting on the fence his first year in office, President Bill Clinton embraced the cause of trade, despite the political costs, and fought fiercely, and against great odds, for the Uruguay round. Mr. Obama should do no less.

Jagdish N. Bhagwati a professor of economics at Columbia, is a co-author of “Offshoring of American Jobs: What Response From U.S. Economic Policy?”

The original article appeared in the New York Times.

Posted in Trade | 1 Comment
July 18, 2011

Free trade, safe trade: Poor economic policies can be rather painful, literally

One may be forgiven if, on reading the ceaseless G20 pronouncements in favour of freer trade, one infers that there is an almost universal agreement that trade matters, that freer trade is a policy to be pursued for public good.

Yet, the case needs to be made as the hostility to freeing trade, to further integration on the trade front into the world economy, is not negligible. It includes not merely the lobbyists for import-competing activities, but also citizens and groups swayed by the contrary assertions of a handful of professional economists, chief among them my former Columbia colleague Dani Rodrik and my current Columbia colleague Joe Stiglitz (both icons to the leftwing populists in India).

Rather than citing the scientific evidence that is now available in spades, anecdotes reflecting my experience with the deleterious consequences of closed or sheltered markets might be more useful.

For starters, go back to India before reforms including measures to reduce manufacturing protection began in 1991 following an external payments crisis. The shoddiness of much manufacturing production and of tradable services had become by then a constant irritant for millions. Economist Padma Desai, who had studied the working of India’s Tariff Commission, has written how this commission remarked that “in an Indian car, everything makes a noise except the horn”. Of course, the commission was blissfully unaware that it was its policy of granting automatic, what the economist Max Corden has called “made to measure” protection that was the cause of the predicament. Today, after almost 20 years of steady manufacturing-tariff reduction from an applied level of over 75% to about 12%, and removal of restrictions on entry by domestic private entrepreneurs, competition has made the car industry (and many others) so efficient that Tatas have produced the much-celebrated mini car, the Nano, and Indian cars are up to world standards. And finally, razor blades work so that you do not look like Johnny Depp despite a shave.

Then again, on a recent visit to Rio to give a dinner speech at a conference on capital flows by the IMF jointly with the government of Brazil, i encountered a throwback to the India of the 1980s, since Brazil is largely in the pre-reforms protectionist stage of India. We were put up at a top of the line hotel facing the beach. But i was getting tepid, not hot, water. I called for the plumber to fix it; he declared it fixed three times but it was not. Finally, two men arrived and fixed the water. But then they had messed up the flush which did not work anymore. Then came the climax: I could not tear open the soap from its package – an experience which was shared by others at the conference and extended to other items like sugar and artificial sweetener, as evidently protection had eliminated any incentive to produce better packaging. So i used my teeth. Alas, the soap stayed beyond my reach but i lost a tooth!

Was this ‘necessary’ infant industry protection? I do not think so. There are few instances of infants growing up unless they cease being mollycoddled. On the other hand, there are many instances of infants growing in sheltered environments turning into senile adults in diapers. Besides, there is real danger in protectionism. At best, it can prevent foreign competitors from coming into your market. But what about external markets? Sheltered industries will be unable to compete outside of their home markets!

A protectionist policy will reserve the Brazilian market for Brazilian industry, but it cannot help it survive in competition with efficient rivals when they compete in third markets. Has Brazil heard that one can be “penny wise and pound foolish”?

The original article appeared in Times of India on July 18, 2011.

Posted in Trade | 1 Comment
July 11, 2011

Communication to Professor Ross Garnaut of Australia apropos the debate over carbon taxation there

Professor Bhagwati favours carbon emission taxation.

In particular, he favours it over ad hoc actions (urged by the “anti-globalization” lobbies) like subsidising local production as against importation of specific products based simply on the assertion that imports “obviously” add to carbon emissions. The Professor cites the DFID (UK) study which showed that the total carbon emissions for a bunch of cut flowers imported from Africa led to less emissions than when imported from Amsterdam. The latter emitted more because the flowers were grown in greenhouses.

Only a general carbon tax which applies to emissions equally from fuel in transportation and in energy used in greenhouses would avoid such mistakes. In fact, the lesson from the failure of postwar planning is precisely that, given millions of transactions in a modern economy, you simply cannot plan for each transaction specifically.

Second, Professor Bhagwati favours a carbon tax over cap-and-trade with tradable quotas. The reason is that the latter inevitably turns into differential subsidies to different emitters, depending on what quotas they get for free whereas the amount of such selective differentiation would be less for a carbon tax: While price measures can be diluted by special interests through exemptions, this is likely to be much less so than when free permits are being allocated.

William Nordhaus told him that Stu Eisenstadt (the lawyer and brilliant bureaucrat who is involved in making US environmental policy)had told Nordhaus (who favours, like most economists, the carbon tax)that a carbon tax would put lawyers out of work since lawyers are lobbyists who work to get greater permits for their clients & therefore favour the cap-and-trade solution!

Besides, the differential subsidy involved in cap-and-trade unless all permits are auctioned off, amounting to a carbon tax, would clearly be actionable the 1995 SCM Code and would almost certainly invite action from other nations if the country using the cap-and-trade solution does not seek to impose import taxes on other nations that do not (as the US Congress seems hell bent on doing, as does the French PM Sarkozy).

Posted in General | 3 Comments
June 23, 2011

Why Free Trade Matters

Contrary to what skeptics often assert, the case for free trade is robust. It extends not just to overall prosperity (or “aggregate GNP”), but also to distributional outcomes, which makes the free-trade argument morally compelling as well.

The link between trade openness and economic prosperity is strong and suggestive. For example, Arvind Panagariya of Columbia University divided developing countries into two groups: “miracle” countries that had annual per capita GDP growth rates of 3% or higher, and “debacle” countries that had negative or zero growth rates. Panagariya found commensurate corresponding growth rates of trade for both groups in the period 1961-1999.

Of course, it could be argued that GDP growth causes trade growth, rather than vice versa – that is, until one examines the countries in depth. Nor can one argue that trade growth has little to do with trade policy: while lower transport costs have increased trade volumes, so has steady reduction of trade barriers.

More compelling is the dramatic upturn in GDP growth rates in India and China after they turned strongly towards dismantling trade barriers in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. In both countries, the decision to reverse protectionist policies was not the only reform undertaken, but it was an important component.

In the developed countries, too, trade liberalization, which started earlier in the postwar period, was accompanied by other forms of economic opening (for example, a return to currency convertibility), resulting in rapid GDP growth. Economic expansion was interrupted in the 1970’s and 1980’s, but the cause was the macroeconomic crises triggered by the success of the OPEC cartel and the ensuing deflationary policies pursued by then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.

Moreover, the negative argument that historical experience supports the case for protectionism is flawed. The economic historian Douglas Irwin has challenged the argument that nineteenth-century protectionist policy aided the growth of infant industries in the United States. He has also shown that many of the nineteenth century’s successful high-tariff countries, such as Canada and Argentina, used tariffs as a revenue source, not as a means of sheltering domestic manufacturers.

Nor should free traders worry that trade openness resulted in no additional growth for some developing countries, as critics contend. Trade is only a facilitating device. For instance, if your infrastructure is bad, or you have domestic policies that prevent investors from responding to market opportunities (such as South Asia’s stifling licensing restrictions), you will see no results. To gain from trade openness, you have to ensure that complementary policies are in place.

But then critics shift ground and argue that trade-driven growth benefits only the elites and not the poor; it is not “inclusive.” In India, however, the shift to accelerated growth after reforms that included trade liberalization has pulled nearly 200 million people out of poverty. In China, which grew faster, it is estimated that more than 300 million people have moved above the poverty line since the start of reforms.

In fact, developed countries benefit from trade’s effect on poverty reduction as well. Contrary to much popular opinion, trade with poor countries does not pauperize rich countries. The opposite is true. It is unskilled, labor-saving technical change that is putting pressure on the wages of workers, whereas imports of cheaper, labor-intensive goods from developing countries help the poor who consume these goods.

If freer trade reduces poverty, it is presumptuous for the critics to claim greater virtue. In truth, the free traders control the moral high ground: with at least a billion people still living in poverty, what greater moral imperative do we have than to reduce that number? Talk about “social justice” is intoxicating, but actually doing something about it is difficult. Here the free traders have a distinct edge.

As the historian Frank Trentmann has demonstrated, the case for free trade was made in nineteenth-century Britain in moral terms: it was held to promote not just economic prosperity, but also peace. It is also worth recalling that US Secretary of State Cordell Hull was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1945 for policies that included his tireless efforts on behalf of multilateral free trade. It is time for the Norwegian Nobel committee to step up again.

The original article appeared on Project Syndicate.

Posted in Trade | 3 Comments
May 31, 2011

Life without Doha

In a recent commentary, I drew on the Interim Report of the High-level Trade Experts Group, appointed by the governments of Britain, Germany, Indonesia, and Turkey, which I co-chair, to explain why concluding the World Trade Organization’s ten-year-old Doha Round was important. The column was reprinted on a blog maintained by CUTS International (Consumer Unity and Trust Society), the most important developing-country NGO today, leading to an outpouring of reactions from trade experts. The faucet is still open, but the debate has already raised critiques that must be answered.

Some critics rushed in to declare that Doha was dead – indeed, that they, being smart, had already said so years ago. Presumably, our attempt at resurrecting it was pathetic and hopeless. But, if Doha was dead, one had to ask why the negotiators were still negotiating, and why nearly all G-20 leaders were still issuing endorsements of the talks each time they met.

Others argued that Doha was dead as negotiated. Or, in the words of former United States Trade Representative Susan Schwab, writing in Foreign Affairs, the Doha talks were “doomed” and ready for burial. However, these critics thought that one could pick at the corpse and salvage “Plan B,” though what was proposed in its many variants – always some minor fraction of the negotiated package to date – should more accurately be called Plan Z.

It sounded like a great idea: better something than nothing. But, in multi-faceted talks that straddle several different sectors (for example, agriculture, manufactures, and services) and diverse rules (such as anti-dumping and subsidies), countries have negotiated concessions with one another in various areas. Whatever balance of concessions has been achieved would unravel if we were to try to keep one set and let go of another.

Indeed, as Stuart Harbinson, a former special adviser to WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy, has pointed out, the haggling over what should go into Plan B would be as animated and difficult as the haggling over how to complete the entire Doha package.

Some of the critics are factually ill-informed. The Bhagwati-Sutherland Report amply documents that much has already been agreed upon in all the major areas. As Lamy has put it, nearly 80% of the curry is ready; we need only additional spices from the major players – India, the European Union, the US, Brazil, and China. These can be provided in politically palatable ways, which also means that the conclusion of Doha is within our reach, not beyond our grasp.

But why bother to continue trying? If Doha fails, some say, life will go on. That is true, of course, but that doesn’t make this view any less naïve.

If the Doha Round fails, trade liberalization would shift from the WTO to preferential trade agreements (PTAs), which are already spreading like an epidemic. But, if PTAs were the only game in town, the implicit constraint on trade barriers against third countries provided by the WTO’s Article 24, which is weak but real, would disappear altogether. The WTO stands on two legs: non-discriminatory trade liberalization and uniform rule-making and enforcement. With the former eliminated, the most important institution of global free trade would be crippled.

This would also affect the leg that survived, because the PTAs would increasingly take over the functions of rule-making as well. This already can be seen in PTAs whose rules on conventional issues like anti-dumping are often discriminatory in favor of members. It is also reflected in the increasing number of non-trade-related provisions being inserted into the PTA treaties proposed by the US and EU, a result of self-serving lobbies that seek concessions by weaker trading partners, without which free trade supposedly would amount to “unfair trade.” These rules are then advertised as “avant garde,” implying that the PTAs are the “vanguard” of new rules.

As a result, the willingness of WTO members to invoke the Dispute Settlement Mechanism, the pride of the WTO – and, indeed, of international governance – would also be sapped. Tribunals established within PTAs would take over the business, leading to the atrophy, and eventual irrelevance, of the DSM.

We can live without the Doha Round, but for many people it would not be much of a life. Now is no time for cynical complacency.

The original article appeared on Project Syndicate.

Posted in Trade | Leave a comment
May 31, 2011

Don’t let usual suspects decide on next IMF boss

The following is a letter from Professor Jagdish Bhagwati to the Financial Times, dated May 26, 2011.

Sir, The choice of a successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn has elicited predictable comments, especially that the succession be on merit and should not exclude non-European candidates (Letters, May 24 and 25). But more can be said.

In particular, the practice of the World Trade Organisation in choosing the director-general provides a role model. The WTO has seen the election of Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi of Thailand to the job in a closely matched contest with Michael Moore of New Zealand, leading to a split term for each. And the Frenchman Pascal Lamy, the current DG, had to fight a tough battle with the Brazilian candidate to get the job.

Contrast this with the way the American Robert Zoellick walked into the World Bank job when Paul Wolfowitz resigned, the US virtually nominating him.

But the current slate of candidates being discussed for the IMF job raises an issue that afflicts both the Bretton Woods institutions and the WTO. In all cases, the slate of candidates being discussed is typically confined to politicians, often ministers and even prime ministers, and high-level bureaucrats. Yet, there is no reason to exclude distinguished academics from competition for these jobs. For example, the UNHCR was led with distinction by Sadako Ogata who had long been an academic.

Perhaps the way to widen the slate is to cut the link between nominations for the job and the governments: it is inevitable that governments, which means of course bureaucrats and politicians, will nominate their own kind to these jobs.

Jagdish Bhagwati,

University Professor of Economics and Law,

Columbia University,

New York, NY, US

Posted in General | Leave a comment